Scenario Analysis of Water and Energy Productivity for Crops in Minab Region under Climate Change

Subject Areas : Water resources management

Mahdiye Amani ¹ , Maryam Omidi Najafabadi ^{2 *} , Seyed Mahdi Mirdamadi ³ , Ali Mohammadi Torkashvand ⁴

1 - PhD student, Department of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Professor, Department of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
4 - Professor, Department of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Received: 2025-08-09 Accepted : 2025-10-25 Published : 2025-11-10

Keywords: Climate change, Energy productivity, SSP scenarios, Sustainable agriculture, Water productivity,

Abstract :

Background and Aim: The agricultural sector, as a main pillar of the economy, is highly affected by climate change. These fluctuations have destabilized crop yields and water resources, reducing productivity. Minab County, one of the agricultural hubs in southern Iran, plays a key role in the production of field and horticultural crops. The aim of this study is to analyze agricultural indicators and water productivity of selected crops in the county during the period 2007–2022 (1386–1401 in the Iranian calendar) and to examine the effects of climatic parameters such as precipitation, temperature, and sunshine hours. Furthermore, assessing the impacts of future climate change on the region’s agriculture under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) is another objective of this research.

Method: In this study, the impact of climate change on the yield and water and energy productivity of four major agricultural crops—wheat, tomato, onion, and watermelon—was investigated. For this purpose, meteorological data (including minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours) and agricultural data related to yield and water and energy consumption were used. The raw data, after cleaning and normalization, were simulated for the future period using the LARS-WG model under three different climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The model’s accuracy was evaluated and confirmed using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R). To analyze the relationships between climatic and agricultural variables, the Pearson correlation method was applied in Python, and the results were presented as heatmaps. Furthermore, to enhance the reliability of the results, modeling uncertainty was reported by calculating a 95% confidence interval. Additionally, two key indices, RMSE and NSE, were computed to assess the accuracy of the models.

Findings: Tomato, with a physical water productivity of 17.8 kg m⁻³ and an economic water productivity of 1141.56 Rials m⁻³, demonstrated the highest water use efficiency and economic value. Watermelon also showed the highest energy yield, with 0.88 MJ ha⁻¹. In contrast, wheat exhibited the lowest water productivity (1.03 kg m⁻³) and energy productivity (0.12 MJ ha⁻¹). Under the pessimistic SSP585 scenario, increased temperature and decreased precipitation led to higher water requirements and reduced crop yield. Moreover, tomato and watermelon were more sensitive to temperature, while wheat and onion were more sensitive to precipitation. Model evaluation results indicated that selecting a nonlinear (second-degree) model significantly improved prediction accuracy for most climatic variables.

Conclusion: Climate change has a direct impact on the yield and productivity of agricultural crops in Minab County. While water productivity is relatively high for some crops such as watermelon, strategic crops like wheat are more vulnerable to climate change. Given the limitations of water resources and the increasing pressure from global population growth, it is essential to adopt effective management strategies to enhance water and energy productivity in agriculture. Integrating technical, economic, and environmental approaches can play a vital role in improving water resource management and ensuring agricultural sustainability.

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