Evaluating the Effect of Landuse Change on Flooding with a Future Research Approach in Chalus Watershed

Subject Areas : Watershed management and water extraction

Iman Fazeli Sani ¹ , Baharak Motamedvaziri ^{2 *} , Alireza Moghaddamnia ³ , shabanali Gholami ⁴

1 - Ph.D Student. Department of Nature Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 - Full Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Noor Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mazandaran, Iran.

Received: 2024-10-29 Accepted : 2025-02-05 Published : 2025-06-19

Keywords: Flood, Hydrological behavior, Landuse, Simulation,

Abstract :

Background and Aim: Land use change and excessive development of cities and villages at the level of watersheds or along rivers and canals is one of the most important causes of flood damage. In this regard, in the present study, using satellite images and the HEC_HMS hydrological model, the impact of land use change on the flood of the Chalus watershed was investigated.

Method: Landsat satellite images were used to prepare the land cover/use map of the Chalus watershed and four land use classes (agricultural land, high and mountainous land, forest and pasture, residential and urban areas) were considered. After determining educational samples, supervised classification with a maximum likelihood algorithm was used to prepare land cover/use maps of the Chalus watershed. In the current research, modeling of land use changes in two time periods 1993 to 2015 (22-year period) and 2015 to 2021 (7-year period) and 2021 to 2025 and 2030 using the Markov chain model and combining it with cellular automata to reveal is Done. Then, first, the trend of CN changes was calculated according to the change in land use area for the years 2025, 2030, and the HEC-HMS model for three events according to the change of CN value was implemented by considering the constant value for other factors for the mentioned years.

Results: The findings of the research showed that in 2025, peak discharge and flood volume have increased by 45.9% and 50.8%, respectively, compared to 2006. In 2030, the changes in peak discharge and flood volume increase compared to 2006 are more evident due to the changes in CN and have increased by 50.55 and 60.2%, respectively. Peak discharge and flood volume in 2025 and 2030 compared to 2013 will have significant changes due to land use change, so in 2030 peak discharge will increase by 54.5% and flood volume will increase by 47% compared to 2013.

Conclusion: Considering that the change in land use in the Chalus watershed has a great impact, its management for the future requires a comprehensive and forward-looking perspective.

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