Scenarios for the Success of Iran's National Gymnastics Team in the 2028 Olympics

Subject Areas : Sport Sciences Quarterly

Mohamad saman Yavarirad ¹ , Korosh Veisi ^{2 *} , Samira Aliabadi ³

1 - Department of physical education, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran.
2 - Department of physical education, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran.
3 - Assistant Professor,Department of Sport management,Sanandaj Branch,Islamic azad University,Sanandaj,Iran

Received: 2024-10-30 Accepted : 2024-12-24 Published : 2025-04-08

Keywords: 2028 Olympics, Gymnastics, National Team, Success, Scenario,

Abstract :

the purpose of the research was to identify the key drivers and present possible scenarios for the success of the national gymnastics team in the 2028 Olympics. The current research was of mixed type (qualitative-quantitative) and its design was exploratory-sequential. The participants of the research were the directors of the gymnastics federation, coaches and players of the national gymnastics team, and international gymnastics coaches and judges of the country. The sampling method was snowball and based on theoretical saturation, 16 people were selected. Interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data, and Lincoln and Gaba (1985) criteria were used to audit it. To analyze the data, coding methods, fuzzy Delphi, structural analysis and balance analysis of mutual effects were used. By analyzing the interviews, 62 initial concepts were combined into 38 final concepts. Then, by screening through fuzzy Delphi, 16 effective factors were identified and finally it was determined that talent acquisition and talent development, investment in women's sports, sports diplomacy of the gymnastics federation and the number of participants in the Olympic Games are four driving forces for the success of the national gymnastics team in the 2028 Olympics. are. Also, the results indicated that 2 scenarios with a high score and more probability of occurrence are envisioned in the conditions facing the national gymnastics team in the 2028 Olympics, among which the success scenario shows promising and favorable conditions, and the failure scenario shows critical conditions. And it proved disappointing.

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