Examining Tehran's urban development scenarios with a foresight approach
Subject Areas : Geography and Urban Planningzeynab alamati 1 * , alireza kaldi 2 , mehrdad navabakhsh 3
1 - PhD student in Development Sociology; Science and Research Branch,
Islamic Azad University, Tehran,
2 - Faculty Member of Islamic Azad University, Research Branch of Tehran
3 - Faculty Member of Islamic Azad University Research Branch of Tehran
Keywords: Future-Oriented Approach, Urban Development, Scenario, Tehran City, ,
Abstract :
The lack of a comprehensive and holistic approach to the urban system, the lack of effective participation and collaboration among stakeholders, and the neglect of a future-oriented approach by urban planners and managers have driven them towards applying new tools, particularly future-oriented approaches and scenario writing in this field. The aim of this research is to investigate the development scenarios of Tehran's urban areas with a future-oriented approach. The research method is descriptive-analytic, and from the perspective of the purpose, it is practical, studying the scenarios of urban development in Tehran with a future-oriented approach. The study population includes all experts and elites in the field of urban management and urban planning, estimated at 35 based on the Cochran model. In this research, interviews with experts were conducted to code and evaluate the data using the average test model in SPSS software, and to analyze the existing scenarios, MICMAC software was used. According to the research findings, the economic and urban management situation are the most effective driving factors in the development of Tehran, and finally, the economic situation and urban management were determined as the two main axes for presenting scenarios. Therefore, four scenarios were presented for the future development of Tehran's metropolis, including sustainable Tehran, powerful Tehran, vulnerable Tehran, and unstable Tehran. The first scenario is desirable, and the other scenarios move towards a suitable situation where strategies have been provided in environmental, economic, physical-technological, social, and administrative-political dimensions.