Investigating the Price Effects of Agricultural Products with Sustainable Agriculture Approach
Subject Areas : Sustainable production technologiesJalal Bazarafshan 1 , Seyed Nematullah Mousavi 2 * , Bahauddin Najafi 3
1 - Phd. student, Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Morovdasht Islamic Azad University, Morovdasht, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Islamic Azad University, Marodasht Branch, Marodasht, Iran
3 - Professor, Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
Keywords: Agriculture, Currency, Oil, Social Dissatisfaction, Business Cycles, Markov Switching Regime Change Model,
Abstract :
Objective: In this study, we seek to investigate the effects of agricultural product prices despite currency fluctuations, oil shock and embargo on social dissatisfaction and business cycles of the country in recession and boom regimes
Material and methods: For this purpose, the effect of study variables during the period of 1991 to 2020 is investigated by using the rotation model and Markov switching regime change.
Results: The estimation results of the Markov model for periods of recession and prosperity show; One percent increase in the price of agricultural products, currency fluctuations, inflation and sanctions during the recession, respectively; 54%, 14%, 17%, 12%, the production gap increases during recession and in the second model respectively; 25%, 21%, 15%, 16%, the quality of regulation decreases and social dissatisfaction increases. Also, the length of the recession period compared to the boom period is 18 years versus 12 years in the business cycle model and 19 years versus 11 years of prosperity in the social dissatisfaction model
Conclusion: Therefore, it can be seen that the rate of survival during Iran's recession has a high probability, and all these factors increase the risk of investing in Iran and lead to an increase in business cycles and social dissatisfaction.
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