Study of efficacy of Hyre and Wallin models for predicting potato late blight in Gorgan

Subject Areas : دو فصلنامه تحقیقات بیماریهای گیاهی

M.A. Aghajani ¹ (استادیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات گیاهپزشکی، مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان گلستان، گرگان، ایران.)

Received: 2015-07-28 Accepted : 2015-07-28 Published : 2015-11-22

Keywords: Forecasting, Potato, Blight favorable day, late blight, severity value,

Abstract :

Late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans, is the most important disease of potato in the world, which several models have been developed for its forecasting in different regions of the world. Two important and basic models are Hyre and Wallin’s which use weather variables BFD (favorable day based on daily temperature and rainfall) and SV (severity values based on hourly relative humidity and temperature) for disease prediction, respectively. In order to study of predicting potential of these models under the conditions at Gorgan region, weather data of ten years (2002-2012) were utilized via logistic regression and discriminant analyses. Analysis of these variables during two durations (from planting to disease appearance and from the first day of Farvardin to disease appearance) revealed that there isn’t a significant relationship between the models specified variables and disease occurrence, but changing the thresholds of precipitation in Hyre model and RH in Wallin model produced a significant relationship. Besides the variables of these models, the four variables of total precipitation, number of rainy days, total sunny hours and total evaporation, had a very significant correlation with disease occurrences, and could predict the disease occurrences with a high accuracy

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