Asymmetric effects of changes in liquidity volume on the added value of transportation, warehousing and communication

Subject Areas :

مهناز حاله ¹ , کامبیز هژبرکیانی ² , فرید عسگری ³ , محمدصادق علیپور ⁴

1 - نویسنده مسئول، دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، واحد ابهر، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، ابهر، ایران. آدرس پست الکترونیکی: [e-mail]
2 - استاد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی، تهران، ایران
3 - استادیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، واحد ابهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ابهر، ایران
4 - استادیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشکده آمار، تهران، ایران.

Received: 2022-07-12 Accepted : 2022-09-21 Published : 2022-10-22

Keywords: Transportation, Liquidity, asymmetric effects, Key words: Value Added, Warehousing and Communication, Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag,

Abstract :

AbstractOne of the important and effective success factors in development planning is the knowledge of the structure and potential of different sectors in the economy. Transportation, warehousing and communication sub-sectors are among the sectors of the country's economy, which have a significant share in the gross national product, and therefore, the factors affecting its added value should be considered by economic policy makers. On the other hand, in the direction of formulation and macro-economic decisions, the amount and direction of influence (symmetry or asymmetry) of monetary policies, including changes in the volume of liquidity, on macro-variables has always been the concern of economic policymakers. Therefore, in the upcoming study, we will dynamically examine the direction and degree of influence of the added value of the transportation, warehousing and communication sub-sector from asymmetric changes in the volume of liquidity using time series data annually during the period 1363 to 1398 and for For this purpose, the autoregression model with non-linear distribution breaks and the edge test approach have been used. The results show that there is a long-term relationship (collinearity) between the variables of the model, and the shocks of changes in the volume of liquidity in the studied model have an asymmetric effect and have larger coefficients in the long run. Based on other research results, the interest rate of bank loans on the added value of this sub-sector is positive and significant, and the elasticity of the added value of the mentioned sub-sector in the investigated model is higher than the interest rate of bank loans in relation to the changes in the volume of liquidity in the short and long term.

References:

منابع
- ابراهیمی، مریم و هژبر کیانی، کامبیز ) 1397 (، بررسی اثرات نامتقارن نوسانات نرخ ارز بر تراز تجاری ایران
و چین با رویکرد ARDL غیر خطی. فصلنامه اقتصاد مالی. شماره 44 ، 39 - 21
- آقایان، بهنوش سادات و محبی نیا ) 1394 (، اهمیت بخش خدمات و زیر بخشهای آن در اقتصاد ایران.
چهارمین همایش کاربرد الگوی داده و ستانده.
- امیرجان، رضا و صمصامی، حسین ) 1390 (، بررسی اثر تسهیلات بانکی بر ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت و
معدن، فصلنامه پژوهشها و سیاستهای اقتصادی، شماره 59 ، 150 - 129 .
- شهبازی، کیومرث و کریم زاده، الهام ) 1394 (، تأثیر سیاستهای پولی و مالی بر ارزشافزوده بخش صنعت
در ایران در راستای سیاستهای کلی بخش صنعت، فصلنامه سیاست راهبردی و کلان. شماره 8 ، 110 - 93
- کوشالشاهی، زینب و طهرانچیان، امیر منصور ) 1396 (، مقایسه تأثیر نقدینگی و اعتبارات بر ارزش افزوده
بخش کشاورزی ایران، تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی، شماره 4 ، 38 - 22
- متفکر آزاد، محمدعلی و محسنی زنوزی و محمد قلی پور تپه ) 1395 (، بررسی تأثیر سیاستهای پولی و
مالی بر ارزش افزوده بخش خدمات در اقتصاد ایران. دو فصلنامه اقتصاد پولی و مالی. شماره 12
- نصیری فر، ابراهیم و هژبر کیانی، کامبیز ) 1398 (، بررسی اثرات نامتقارن شوکهای پولی بر تولید و اشتغا ل
صنعت خودرو با رویکرد ARDL غیرخطی . فصلنامه مد لسازی اقتصادسنجی. شماره 4 ، 29 - 9
- نوفرستی، محمد ) 1391 (. ریشه واحد و همجمعبستگی در اقتصادسنجی، موسسه خدمات فرهنگی رسا .
-Assad Zadeh, A & Mohammadgholi P. T, O. (2015). “Exploring the Role of Service Sector in Increasing Non-oil GDP in Iran's Economy”, Sixth Conference of Iran`s Economy, Mazandaran University. (In Persian)
-Devadoss S., Meyers W. H. & Starleafa D. R. (1990). Impacts of US Monetary Policies on the Farm Sector. Applied Economics, 22(11): 1451-1471.
-Hassan shahi, M., Rahimi M. and khalili M. (2012). The effects of monetary and fiscal policies on employment and Added Value: A case study of Agriculture sector in IRAN. Journal of Basic and Applied scientific Research. 2(4): 4262- 4265
-Hashemi Dizaj, A. (2007). “Monetary and Fiscal Policies”. Publications of Jahad Daneshgahi. Tehran. First Edition. (In Persian).
-Khosravi. A., & Karimi, M.S. (2010). To Investigation the Relationship between Monetary, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Iran: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration. American Journal of Applied Sciences. 7 (3), 420-424
-Pesaran, Hashem, Shin Yangcheol, Smith Richard J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics. 16(3): 289-326.
-Ragoobur, V. T. (2010). “The Services Sector and Economic Growth in Mauritius: A Bounds Testing Approach to Co integration”. University of Mauritius Reserch Journal. 16, 313-331
-Shin Y,Yu B, Greenwood-Nimmo M,(2013).Modelling Asymmetric. Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework Festschrift, forthcoming,pringer.

_||_

-Assad Zadeh, A & Mohammadgholi P. T, O. (2015). “Exploring the Role of Service Sector in Increasing Non-oil GDP in Iran's Economy”, Sixth Conference of Iran`s Economy, Mazandaran University. (In Persian)
-Devadoss S., Meyers W. H. & Starleafa D. R. (1990). Impacts of US Monetary Policies on the Farm Sector. Applied Economics, 22(11): 1451-1471.
-Hassan shahi, M., Rahimi M. and khalili M. (2012). The effects of monetary and fiscal policies on employment and Added Value: A case study of Agriculture sector in IRAN. Journal of Basic and Applied scientific Research. 2(4): 4262- 4265
-Hashemi Dizaj, A. (2007). “Monetary and Fiscal Policies”. Publications of Jahad Daneshgahi. Tehran. First Edition. (In Persian).
-Khosravi. A., & Karimi, M.S. (2010). To Investigation the Relationship between Monetary, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Iran: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration. American Journal of Applied Sciences. 7 (3), 420-424
-Pesaran, Hashem, Shin Yangcheol, Smith Richard J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics. 16(3): 289-326.
-Ragoobur, V. T. (2010). “The Services Sector and Economic Growth in Mauritius: A Bounds Testing Approach to Co integration”. University of Mauritius Reserch Journal. 16, 313-331
-Shin Y,Yu B, Greenwood-Nimmo M,(2013).Modelling Asymmetric. Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework Festschrift, forthcoming,pringer.