Application of geographic weighted regression (GWR) in spatial modeling of Covid 19 disease and urban policy in different age groups in Gerash city, Fars province

Subject Areas : Geography

Soraya Ansari ¹ , Maryam Ansari ^{2 *} , Mohammad Ansari ³ , Etreyeh Ahmadi ⁴ , Tayebeh Mehrvari ⁵ , Mohammad Hosein Golkar ⁶ , Mohammad Nowrouzi ⁷ , Safeyeh Atashbar ⁸

1 - Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Gerash
2 - Department of Geography, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
3 - nfectious diseases expert, Vice-Chancellor of Health, Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Fars, Iran
4 - Director of Quality Improvement of Amirul Mominin (AS) Gerash Medical Education Center, Fars, Iran.
5 - Pediatrician, Vice President of Health, Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Fars, Iran.
6 - Deputy Technical Assistant of Health, Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Fars, Iran
7 - Head of Diseases Department, Executive Vice President of Health, Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Fars, Iran
8 - Expert of Maternal Health Program, Vice-Chancellor of Health, Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Fars, Iran

Received: 2023-10-03 Accepted : 2024-01-12 Published : 2024-02-04

Keywords: Covid-19, Gerash, GWR, Modeling, Policy,

Abstract :

The Covid-19 pandemic has become a health problem due to its high rate of transmission and rapid spread worldwide. Therefore, in recent years, many researchers have investigated and spatially analyzed the covid-19 disease with different factors in order to policy and better manage these conditions. Therefore, in this research, by choosing the city of Gerash in Fars province as an example of the southern cities of the country, the efficiency of the GWR model was measured to determine the high-risk areas of death due to corona disease in different age groups. In this research, the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model has been used to investigate the relationship between deaths caused by Corona in Gerash city and different age groups and spatial modeling for urban policy . The results showed that among the 10 age groups, one of them, that is, the age group of 61-70 years old, has a significant relationship with the number of deaths, and the highest degree of correlation can be seen in the west of Gerash city, followed by the highest degree of correlation, respectively. It is 0.97 to the north, 0.92 to the center and 0.88 to the south The specified places are economically weaker than other parts of the city, and the sections of society that are economically weaker are more vulnerable than other sections. Also, the practical results of the GWR model and its high power for modeling will help managers and planners to identify the critical points of pandemic conditions and use them for policy and better management.

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