Drawing scenarios for the opportunities and threats of Arab ethnocentrism in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Subject Areas : Iran

Hossein Torki ¹ (Faculty member)
MohammadAli Khosravi ² (Faculty member)
Ali ghorbanpour ³ (Faculty member)

Received: 2020-05-12 Accepted : 2021-02-21 Published : 2021-02-19

Keywords: Iran, National Security, Scenario, Ethnicism, Arab Nation,

Abstract :

National security is the basic condition and, of course, the most important condition for the preservation, survival, progress and development of any country in all fields. In order to predict the security situation of the country in the coming years, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation and ethnic challenges. The purpose of this study is to outline scenarios for the opportunities and threats of Arab ethnicity in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.This research is applied in terms of nature and purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method and due to the futuristic nature of the research, it is also exploratory. For this purpose, the effective factors in the field of Arab ethnocentrism were identified using the method of environmental monitoring and reviewing specialized studies in this field and were provided to 15 experts in the form of a matrix questionnaire. The obtained variables were spectroscopically cross-sectionalized using Mick Mac software and analyzed using scenario wizard software while obtaining expert opinions, and finally possible and compatible scenarios were identified and extracted.The findings of this study showed that scenario number one is the strongest and most probable scenario obtained from Wizard scenario software. Condition means (reduction of fine dust) is the desired condition.