Survey the Impact of the Abraham Accords on the Interactions of Subcomplexes of the Middle East Regional Security Complex

Subject Areas : International Relations

Ebrahim Rasouli ¹ , علی آدمی ^{2 *}

1 - Allameh Tabataba'i University
2 - هیات علمی

Received: 2024-08-12 Accepted : 2024-11-09 Published : 2025-06-04

Keywords: Abraham Accords, Middle East Regional Security Complex, Regional Security Subcomplex, Normalization,

Abstract :

The normalization of Israel's relations with four Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, in the second half of 2020, which is known as the Abraham Accords, is one of the new and important changes in the Middle East regional security complex. These agreements put an end to a historical enmity between Israel and four Arab countries. Since these agreements, due to their nature, process and goals, have the potential to influence the security complex of the Middle East, investigating how it influences and its consequences is the goal of this article. In this regard, the main question of this article is how the Abraham Accords have affected the interactions of subcomplexes in the Middle East Regional Security Complex? The current research seeks to answer the above question by using the qualitative content analysis method, using the security set theory of Barry Buzan and Ole Weaver. The results of this research indicate that the Abraham Accords in 2020 have influenced the interactions of subcomplexes in the Middle East security complex through increase interactions between the Levant and the Persian Gulf Subcomplexes, increasing the importance of the Persian Gulf Subcomplex as the center of security developments in the Middle East, the involvement of all actors of the Levant and the Persian Gulf Subcomplexes in the developments related to these two Subcomplexes, and finally the decrease in the interactions of the Maghreb Subcomplex with other Subcomplexes and its marginalization from the developments of the Middle East Security Complex.

References:

منابع فارسی: - آدمی، علی و دیگران (1397)، اسرائیل و عربستان سعودی: عصر جدیدی از همکاری دوجانبه، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، سال هفتم، شماره 72، زمستان 7932 (شماره پیاپی 72)
- ایرنا (14 مهر 1399)، مقام یمنی از همکاری‌های امنیتی حکومت پیشین کشورش با رژیم صهیونیستی گفت، قابل دسترسی در وب سایت خبرگزاری ایرنا به آدرس: https://irna.ir/xjBysW (بازیابی شده در تاریخ 25 فروردین 1403).
- ایسنا (14 مهر 1399)، مهر تأیید تحلیلگر اسرائیلی بر اسناد ارتش یمن درباره روابط نظام عبدالله صالح با رژیم صهیونیستی، قابل دسترسی در: isna.ir/xdGNQV (بازیابی شده در تاریخ 25 فروردین 1403)
- بوزان، بری (1381)، خاورمیانه: ساختاری همواره کشمکش‌زا، ترجمه: احمد صادقی، فصلنامه سیاست‌خارجی، سال شانزدهم، شماره 3، پاییز 1381، صص. 633-680.
- بوزان، باری و الی ویور (1388) مناطق و قدرت‌ها، ترجمه رحمان قهرمان‌پور، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
- چگنی زاده، غلامعلی و دیگران (1392). تاثیر تحولات سوریه بر الگوی تعاملی میان ایران و ترکیه, الگوی مفهومی و نظری. فصلنامه علمی-پژوهشی آفاق امنیت، 6(21)، 61-110.
- سازمند، بهاره و مهدی جوکار (1395)، مجموعه امنیتی منطقه‌ای، پویش‌ها و الگوهای روابط کشورهای حوزه خلیج‌فارس، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک سال دوازدهم، شماره دوم، تابستان 1395، صص 151-177.
- محمودی، مسعود (1396). مجموعه امنیتی منطقه‌ای خاورمیانه در حال گذار (2003-2016)، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
- نیاکویی، سیدامیر و ستوده، علی اصغر. (1394). تأثیر منازعات داخلی سوریه و عراق بر مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه (2011- 2015). فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، 4(15) پیاپی 45، 153-177.
منابع لاتین: - Abadi, Jacob (2000), Pragmatism and Rhetoric in Libya's Policy Toward Israel, Journal of Conflict Studies, 20(2)., Available at: https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/JCS/article/view/4313/4929 (Visited April 21, 2024) - Abraham Accords Declaration (September 15, 2020), The Abraham Accords Declaration Available on the U.S. Department of State website, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Abraham-Accords-signed-FINAL-15-Sept-2020-508-1.pdf (Visited March 15, 2024) - Aftandilian, Gregory (Sep 13, 2023), The Recent Libya-Israel Debacle Is Symptomatic of Larger Problems, Available on the Arab Center Washington DC. website, https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-recent-libya-israel-debacle-is-symptomatic-of-larger-problems/ (Visited April 21, 2024) - Ahmed, Omar (June 29, 2020), Israel’s ambitions in south Yemen increase risk of conflict with Houthis, Available on the Middle East Monitor website, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200629-israels-ambitions-in-south-yemen-increase-risk-of-conflict-with-houthis/ (Visited April 17, 2024) - Alshamary, Marsin and Kevin Huggard (December 21, 2023), How Iraq is managing the Israel-Gaza crisis, Brookings Institution, Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-iraq-is-managing-the-israel-gaza-crisis/ (Visited April 20, 2024) - Bland, Archie and Bethan McKernan (2024). Who are the Houthis and how did the US and UK strikes on Yemen come about?, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/12/yemen-houthi-rebels-who-are-they-what-attacking-us-uk-airstrikes-red-sea-crisis (Visited April 17, 2024) - Burke, Jason. (November 7, 2023), A deadly cascade: how secret Hamas attack orders were passed down at last minute, The Guardian, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/07/secret-hamas-attack-orders-israel-gaza-7-october (Visited November 12, 2023) - Buzan, Barry, and Ole Wæver. (2003): Regions and powers: The structure of international security, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press - CNN (August 13, 2020), the full statement by the US, Israel and UAE on normalizing Israel-UAE relations, Available on the CNN website, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html (Visited March 15, 2024) - Dachtler, Petra (2022). From New to Normal: Two Years after the Abraham Accords. German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA Focus), Number 5. Available at, https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-81598-5 (Visited April 18, 2024) - Eck, Trevor (2019), Arab Spring in North Africa: An Analysis of Foreign Influence and Revolutions in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, Available at University at Albany, State University of New York Website: https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=curce (Visited May 27, 2024) - Elsaidi, Samira (September 8, 2023), How Libya-Israel talks 'scandal' exposed lack of popular mandate for normalisation, Available at: https://www.newarab.com/analysis/libya-israel-scandal-no-popular-mandate-normalisation (Visited April 21, 2024) - Ghebouli, Zine Labidine (November 2023). Algeria and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Reactions and Policies, Available on The European Institute of the Mediterranean website: https://www.euromesco.net/publication/algeria-and-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict-reactions-and-policies/ (Visited April 22, 2024) - Goldsmith, Leon (October 21, 2023). Gaza, the Abraham Accords, Armageddon and a new path for diplomacy, Available on The Post website: https://www.thepost.co.nz/world-news/350096063/gaza-abraham-accords-armageddon-and-new-path-diplomacy (Visited October 25, 2023) - Guzansky, Yoel (2015), Israel and the Arab Gulf states: from tacit cooperation to reconciliation? Israel Affairs, Vol. 21, No. 1, 131–147, Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13537121.2014.984424 (Visited January 3, 2024) - Lamloum, Olfa and Mahdi Elleuch (March 18, 2024), Tunisian relations with Israel: Normalization or Criminalization?, Available on The Legal Agenda website, https://english.legal-agenda.com/tunisian-relations-with-israel-normalization-or-criminalization/ (Visited April 22, 2024) - Laskier, M. M. (2001). Israel and Algeria amid French Colonialism and the Arab-Israeli Conflict, 1954-1978. Israel Studies, 6(2), 1. Available at: https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/A78538810/AONE?u=anon~9dfa97fc&sid=googleScholar&xid=d7e7223d (Visited May 22, 2024) - Magen, A. (2013). In the Eye of the Storm: An Israeli Perspective on the “Arab Spring.”, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT). Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep09443 (Visited August 10, 2024) - Myrvold, Christian (2022). The Abraham Accords: A Comparative Perspective on American Foreign Policy in the Middle East, UIT the Arctic University of Norway. Available at: https://munin.uit.no/handle/10037/25488 (Visited August 2, 2024) - New Arab (30 August, 2023), From Gaddafi to Haftar: The covert history of Libya-Israel relations. Available on the New Arab website, https://www.newarab.com/news/do-libya-and-israel-have-covert-relations (Visited April 21, 2024) - New Arab (March 1, 2024), US blocks Algeria condemnation of Gaza aid massacre at UN Security Council. Available on the New Arab website, https://www.newarab.com/news/us-blocks-algeria-condemnation-gaza-aid-massacre-un (Visited May 21, 2024) - Norlen, Tova & Tamir Sinai, (October 2020), The Abraham Accords – Paradigm Shift or Realpolitik?, Marshall Center Security Insight, no. 64, Available at: https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/security-insights/abraham-accords-paradigm-shift-or-realpolitik (Visited February 20, 2024) - Olmert, Josef (APRIL 23, 2024), Iran and Israel Shift From Proxy War to Direct Conflict, Fair Observer, Available at: https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/iran-and-israel-shift-from-proxy-war-to-direct-conflict/# (Visited May 21, 2024) - Peace Research Center Prague (2011). Iraq vs. Israel 1973 - ONGOING BY 2011. Available at: https://www.prcprague.cz/fcdataset/iraq-israel (Visited January 20, 2024) - Rabi, Uzi (2009) Qatar’s Relations with Israel: Challenging Arab and Gulf Norms, MIDDLE EAST JOURNAL, Volume 63, No. 3, summer 2009, 443-459(17). Available at: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/mei/mei/2009/00000063/00000003/art00006 (Visited November 25, 2023) - Rabinovich, Itamar (2015) ISRAEL AND THE CHANGING MIDDLE EAST, Brookings., Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Israel-Rabinovich-01292015.pdf (Visited May 13, 2024) - Reuters (December 27, 2008), Arab foreign ministers to meet on Gaza, Available on the Reuters website, https://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4BQ0YZ20081227/ (Visited April 17, 2024) - Rynhold, Jonathan & Michal Yaari (2021) The quiet revolution in Saudi-Israeli relations, Mediterranean Politics, 26:2, 260-268, Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13629395.2019.1699267 DOI: 10.1080/13629395.2019.1699267 (Visited December 25, 2023) - Salas Cuevas, Ana (March 26, 2022) A new era in Israel-Morocco relations, https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/a-new-era-in-israel-morocco-relations (Visited April 17, 2024) - Sallon, Hélène (October 28, 2023) Iran's latent front in Syria poses a real threat to Israel, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/10/28/iran-s-latent-front-in-syria-poses-a-real-threat-to-israel_6209959_4.html (Visited May 27, 2024) - Simon, Steven (June 30, 2021). Israel and the Persian Gulf: A Source of Security or Conflict? Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, QUINCY BRIEF NO. 13. Available at: https://quincyinst.org/research/israel-and-the-persian-gulf-a-source-of-security-or-conflict/# (Visited March 27, 2024) - Singer, J. (2021). The Abraham Accords: Normalization Agreements Signed by Israel with the U.A.E., Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. International Legal Materials, 60(3), 448-463. Available on Cambridge University website, https://doi.org/10.1017/ilm.2021.18 (Visited March 15, 2023) - SVETLOVA, KSENIA (28 December 2023). The power behind the power: How Qatar helped the Houthis become a threat to Israel, Available on the Times of Israel website, https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-power-behind-the-power-how-qatar-helped-the-houthis-become-a-threat-to-israel/ (Visited April 17, 2024) - Walles, Jake (July 02, 2023), Prospects for Israeli-Saudi Normalization: Can Washington wrangle a deal? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Available at: https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/90103 (Visited December 3, 2023) - Wall Street Journal (Oct. 25, 2023), The Dignitaries Who Have Visited Israel So Far, Available on The Wall Street Journal website, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestinians/card/dignitaries-visits-to-israel-JbqAIbSX8QTXQppPewlV (Visited December 5, 2023) - White House (November 24, 2023), Remarks by President Biden on the Release of Hostages from Gaza, Available on the Wight House website: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/24/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-release-of-hostages-from-gaza/ (Visited November 25, 2023) - Xinhua (April 20, 2024), Iraqi Shiite militia claims drone attack on Israel, Available on the Xinhua website, https://english.news.cn/20240420/0be54d41ecc44724b1b17dab2d265ebf/c.html (Visited April 20, 2024) - Yerkes, Sarah (OCTOBER 13, 2023), Arab Perspectives on the Middle East Crisis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/10/13/arab-perspectives-on-middle-east-crisis-pub-90774 (Visited December 3, 2023)