The Futurology of the Russia-Ukraine War and the Evaluation of Iran's Foreign Policy Based on Its Scenarios

Subject Areas : International Relations

javad alipor ^{1 *} , Ramin Farhoudi ²

1 - Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 - The University of Tabriz

Received: 2024-02-12 Accepted : 2024-11-12 Published : 2025-06-04

Keywords: Future Studies, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, the NATO, Scenario Writing,

Abstract :

Any change in the international system influences the foreign policy and behavior of different actors. Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022 was one of the most important events in international relations in the 21st century, which most actors of the international system have been compelled to announce their stances on that war. It is possible to evaluate the approaches of the countries about this conflict through determining its futures and scenarios. Therefore, in the framework of future studies and by scenario writing method, this article tries to answer these questions; what scenarios can be specified for the Russia-Ukraine war and what consequences will have each of those scenarios for the Islamic Republic of Iran? The findings of the research show that five scenarios (peace, Russia's victory, Ukraine's victory, NATO engagement and a nuclear war) can be imagined for this war, and among them, the only favorable scenario for Iran is Russia's victory. However, if Iran avoided getting involved in this conflict and acted based on its national interests, it could not only improve its economic conditions, but also could strengthen its position in the international system.