Scenarios of order in the Middle East until 2030 with emphasis on the activism of Iran and Saudi Arabia

Subject Areas : International Relations

Zahed Ghaffari Hashjin ¹ , Ayub Nikunahad ²

1 - Shahed Uiversity
2 - Shahed University

Received: 2021-07-24 Accepted : 2022-06-02 Published : 2022-05-22

Keywords: Iran, regional security, drivers, Middle East Regional Order, Screenwriting,

Abstract :

After the Islamic Revolution, one of the most stable models of regional order in the Middle East, has been the competition between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, one cannot speak of fully establishing this pattern of bipolar order in the Middle East. And the Middle East regional order may change dramatically over the next ten years. The present study seeks to answer the main question of what the future scenarios of regional order in the Middle East will be like by 2030,and what is the favorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia under these patterns of regional order?In order to provide answers to the questions with a futuristic approach, the method of identifying and analyzing the impulses affecting the formation of regional order and identifying weak surprises and weak markers was used through interviewing experts using Mick Mac software. The research findings consistent with the effect of key drivers and analysis of power blockades in this region indicate that a wide range of scenarios can be proposed regarding the Middle East regional order,but the most desirable order for Iran is the hegemony of the revolutionary order and the most probable scenario for the Islamic Republic is the continuation of the balance of power scenario in this region. In contrast, the most favorable scenario for the pro-Western order is the hegemony of the Western-Salafi order and the most probable scenario for the pro-Western order is the continuation of the balance of power scenario.