Scrutinizing the probabilities of breaking out a war in the wake of China's rise into arena of great powers

Subject Areas :

Mahdi  Nasr ¹ (associate professor of political science in Pyame noor university)

Received: 2021-04-24 Accepted : 2021-09-06 Published : 2021-12-22

Keywords: China, United States, Offensive realism, regional hegemony, Eastern Asia,

Abstract :

China alone has questioned lots of presuppositions of the world system after the cold war, those which were in America's benefit. Now the question is whether China's rise, just as status quo, will traverse a peaceful trajectory. To answer this question, we should consider different suppositions. The first supposition is piece in the meaning of Chinese surrendering to U.S. and the acceptance of American intentions in East Asia and in other regions in the world. The second one is China's confrontation with the United States and entering into war with U.S. in regions dominated by this country, especially eastern Asia. But there is a mediocre third supposition. In this supposition, one country can neither go to immediate war, nor do its interests and power allow it to compromise. Our hypothesis is that China follows the third logic, i. e. neither war nor piece. But if China's rise continues, disputes will grow notably in eastern Asia. This essay uses "offensive realism" as a theoretical framework to be applied on this subject. The results are going to be shown according to history and experimental considerations.

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