Relationship between land use change and climatic indicators in order to determine the CO2 emission trend based on the REDD scenario A new paradigm for nature protection(Case study: Kojoor Protected Area)
Subject Areas : CLIMATOLOGY
Keywords: GIS, land use, climate, Vegetation indices, Kojoor protected area,
Abstract :
Land use change often takes place without observing the principles and restrictions of the environment and will have consequences such as deforestation, obtaining accurate information about land use potentials is essential. The main purpose of this scenario is to reduce greenhouse gases (methane, carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide) and increase carbon sequestration in areas with severe land use change. Therefore, in this study, the need to create and continue an educational movement with the aim of changing behavior and improving public perceptions of the environment and climate change, to achieve sustainable development has been emphasized. In the present study, Landsat satellite images were used in 7 time periods. In order to study and analyze vegetation changes in the study area, EVI, DVI and NDVI indices were used. These indices are from the image processing of Landsat 5, 4 and 8 satellites, which is available as a remote sensing product. The engine was extracted between 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2017 using the Google Earth processor. In this regard, the transfer potential modeling was performed with a learning procedure algorithm based on multilayer perceptron and prediction of changes for the best model was performed using Markov chain. Then it was used to evaluate the accuracy of modeling with Hit, Misses and False alarm statistics. Finally, according to the BioCF method and the basic period of 1364-1396, modeling of forest cover changes for the next 4 years (until 1426) was modeled and the amount of Carbon Stock emission until 1426 was calculated. The results of correlation analysis showed that there was a significant spatial correlation between vegetation dynamics and rainfall, which was significant and direct in winter and inverse in summer. Between 1396 and 1426, if the project strategy is not implemented, about 199569 hectares of forest cover will be destroyed and 1995695 tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted. Prevented the release of 1590,183 tons of carbon dioxide into the Earth's upper atmosphere. In order to prevent the uncontrolled expansion of residential areas and the destruction of forest areas and vegetation, management measures should be taken and management decisions should be made, because the amount of dense and semi-dense forests in areas with high slopes will be further reduced by 1426.
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