Predicting the growth and development of Bandar-e-Gaz Town Using Fuzzy Cellular Automata (FCA)

Subject Areas : KARBARI ARAZI

دنیائی  Donyaii ¹ (Water Resources Expert - Golestan Regional Water Company)

Received: 2021-07-01 Accepted : 2021-11-07 Published : 2021-11-22

Keywords: GIS, Urban Development, remote sensing, Fuzzy Cellular Automata,

Abstract :

automated cell-based models (CAs) are defined based on two-value logic and in a non-flexible manner. Combining fuzzy logic with the classical cellular automata model makes it possible to model the uncertainty governing the urban development simulation process by defining the transition rules using the degrees of fuzzy membership. This study presented the model of urban expansion based on the fuzzy cellular automata. The most effective indicators were first selected using the DEMATEL method. The weight of each indicator was then obtained using the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Three satellite images from 2012, 2014 and 2019 were used to simulate urban development in the study area (Bandar-e-Gaz Town) for the year 2100.After preprocessing; the images were classified for all three periods by the maximum likelihood method. The Kappa index was used to check the accuracy of the maps in two steps. The images of the base year were first classified and their accuracy was examined, and then the simulation of the images of the other years was performed and their accuracy again was examined. Since the degree of accuracy of the model was considered acceptable, the linear regression model and matrix of transition probabilities were used for simulation. The results of this study showed that the proposed model is acceptable so that it works better in urban simulation than the classical model of CA. Also, the growth and development of Bandar-e-Gaz town in different periods has been more in the eastern and western parts.