Validation of Adverse Risk and Favorable Risk Model According to Psychological Variables in Predicting Market Fluctuations in the Iranian Capital Market

Subject Areas : Management

Hassan Rezaei Kangi ¹ , Mahdi Mohammad Bagheri ^{2 *} , Hojat Babaei ³ , Ali RaeispourRajabali ⁴

1 - PhD Candidate of Industrial Management Department, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran
2 - Assistant Prof., Department of Management, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran
3 - Assistant Prof., Department of Mathematics, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran
4 - Assistant Prof., Department of Economics, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran

Received: 2024-05-23 Accepted : 2024-10-24 Published : 2024-12-19

Keywords: Unfavorable Risk, Favorable Risk, Psychological Variables, Market Fluctuations. ,

Abstract :

This research aimed to investigate the validity of the adverse risk and favorable risk model with regard to psychological variables in predicting market fluctuations in the Iranian capital market. This research was done using the quantitative method. The statistical population in the first quantitative part is financial and accounting investors, whose number is unlimited, and based on the unlimited sampling of Cochran's formula, the number of 384 people was considered. In the second quantitative part, the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method was used to stratify and examine the causal relationships of the dimensions, and the participants in this stage included 10 financial and stock managers with experience of 10 years or more and a management experience of at least ten years and a specialized field. They were selected for financial management and accounting. In this research, a questionnaire tool was used to collect the data, and Smart PLS software was used to analyze the data. The results of this research, using the method of structural equations, have shown a significant relationship between the components of unfavorable risk and favorable risk about psychological variables in predicting fluctuations in the Iranian capital market.

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