Explaining the Scenarios of Smart Development Impacts on the Economic Resilience of Rural Households in Confronting Climate Change with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Ferdows, Boshrouyeh, and Sarayan Counties)
Nabiollah Taheri
1
(
Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
)
Aliakbar Anabestani
2
(
Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
)
پگاه مریدسادات
3
(
Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
)
Keywords: Foresight, Drivers, Smartening, Economic Resilience, Scenario Wizard, South Khorasan.,
Abstract :
Therefore, the formulation of scenarios that enable the realization of rural smartening and its impacts on the economic resilience of rural households in facing climate change must be prioritized. In this study, with the participation of managers, officials, and academic experts, the key drivers and influential factors of smartening and its effects on economic resilience in confronting climate change in rural households of three counties (Ferdows, Sarayan, and Boshrouyeh) were identified. Subsequently, effective scenarios for smartening were developed. The research is applied in terms of purpose and employs a descriptive–analytical method. Data and information were collected through library resources, documentary studies, and surveys (interviews). Based on the review of scientific sources, 50 influencing factors of smartening on economic resilience under climate change conditions were identified and categorized into two dimensions. In total, 25 managers of related organizations and academic specialists were interviewed. The results revealed 51 scenarios with weak consistency and only one scenario with strong and sustainable consistency (zero inconsistency). The first scenario, which is a favorable one, had a total cross-impact score of 669 and a consistency value of 4. In contrast, the second scenario, which is unfavorable, had a total negative cross-impact score of 110 and a consistency value of 5. The third (stable) scenario obtained a consistency value of –1, with a total cross-impact score of 62, and could be considered one of the plausible future scenarios of smartening with effective impacts on economic resilience in the face of climate change.
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