Spatial prediction of city resilience against natural hazards (case study: Qaemshahr city)

Subject Areas : Regional Planning

hamzeh behrouzi ¹ , mohamadreza zandmoghadam ^{2 *} , Saeid Kamyabi ³

1 - PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran
2 - Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University of Semnan
3 - Associate Professor, PhD in Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran

Received: 2022-06-09 Accepted : 2022-09-12 Published : 2022-10-04

Keywords: Resilience, Genetic Algorithm, MATLAB, PSO, Natural Hazards,

Abstract :

Resilience has been defined as "a process of ability, or the result of successful adaptation despite threatening conditions", which plays an important role in dealing with the stresses and threats of life and its adverse effects. Also, resilient cities are vulnerable to events. mitigate extremes and respond creatively to environmental, economic and social changes in order to increase their long-term sustainability. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to predict the resilience of Qaemshahr city against natural hazards. The method used in this research is to use GIS software in order to determine points with more resilience and use genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm intelligence (PSO) methods and their programming in MATLAB environment, in order to Using it, the most important components of the city's resilience and the effective strategies to strengthen resilience will be determined. The present research was conducted in two stages, in the first stage, first, using the AHP model, the degree of resilience of urban areas against the 3 hazards of floods and earthquakes. and the landslide was determined and after that the final risk map (resilience level) was prepared by combining all the mentioned components. In the second stage, in order to determine the most important components of the city's resilience, this time 32 indicators of the resilience components were compiled based on 4 criteria (physical-spatial, economic, social, institutional) and analyzed using the genetic algorithm method. Finally, 3 points of the city (Shahid Watani Stadium, Telar Park, Siraj Park) were selected and prioritized as areas with more resilience. Then, in order to confirm and compare the research findings, the PSO method was used by the genetic algorithm (GA). As a result, it can be said that there is a significant difference in terms of resilience among the city's regions, that the increase in the resilience of Qaimshahr city The first stage requires strengthening and modifying the structures of the natural environment and then maintaining the safe environment.