Feasibility of Infill Development using Fuzzy Multivariate Analysis Case study: Urmia Urban

Subject Areas :

hassan mahmodzadeh ¹ , Azra Masoumi ² , mahdi herischian ³

1 - Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 - MSc of Remote Sensing and GIS, Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Science, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
3 - MSc of Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

Received: 2018-07-12 Accepted : 2019-10-18 Published : 2020-07-22

Keywords: Geographic Information System, Urmia, Infill Development, Gamma Fuzzy Multivariate Analysis, Exponential Growth,

Abstract :

This research from the methodology aspect is the descriptive-analytic and categorized in the development - applied type. The required data were collected using library and documentary studies. Environmental, social and physical criteria were identified in 12 variables. Then, by preparing the layers of each criterion, we defined the weight of each layer based on its importance in the infill development analysis. In this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied by Expert choice software for prioritizing, the weighting of criteria and fuzzy multivariate analysis model in GIS environment for production, weighting, and fuzzy combination of layers were used. Finally, using the weights obtained from AHP Analysis, the suitability map for infill development of uremia was prepared using Fuzzy Overly extending in ArcGIS software and the exponential population growth model and land per capita are used to predict the amount of land that could be effective for preventing urban growth sprawl using infill development option. The results showed that from the total of 5502.6 hectares of Uremia, 367.83 (6.69%) of the land quite suitable, 863.55 hectares (15.71%) of land medium suitable, 1448.91 hectares (26.33%) somewhat inappropriate, 1721.25 hectares (28.31%) inappropriate, and 11.61% (20%) are totally inappropriate and the amount of land that can be increased by the applying of an infill development strategy for preventing of urban sprawl growth estimated at 3680000 square meters in the 1405.
Extended Abstract
Introduction:Today, the sprawl growth of cities has led to the encroachment to precious agricultural lands and the disproportionate distribution of urban services that the, it also provided the basis for the instability of the urban environment. In the meantime, infill development by focusing on urban vacancy lands and old and worn-out fabric for development can reduce sprawl urban growth.Therefore, in view of the above mentioned necessities, this research was conducted with the aim of measuring the capacities of infill development in Urmia urban. It has been formulated in response to two main questions, What opportunities and capacities does Urmia have for infill development? And in the horizon of 1405, to what extent can urban sprawl be prevented by focusing on infill development?
Methodology:The present research is descriptive-analytical method and has a developmental-applied nature. Various sources such as websites, books, articles, etc. have been used to study the literature related to the research. Secondary data were also obtained through documentary studies using the Urmia Master Plan studies and other documentary studies. In this research, AHP in Expert choice software was used to prioritize and weight the criteria and from Fuzzy Multivariate Analysis in GIS Software Environment to Generate, Weight, Fuzzification, Integrate and Overlay Layers and an exponential growth and land per capita model was used to predict the role of infill development in preventing peripheral growth in the 1405 horizon.
Results and Discussion:In this research, after knowing the general principles of infill development considering the natural environment and man-made conditions of Urmia urban and the Literature review and studies on the subject of research, determination of infill development indices in Urmia urban as a case study was paid. These criteria are in the form of natural, social and physical criteria in the form of 14 criteria (slope, slope direction, distance from flood path, distance from the fault, distance from the river, distance from military range, distance from main roads, number of floors, age of buildings, Quality of buildings, distance from educational, medical and green spaces centers, zoning) were determined. The hierarchical analysis method was used to weight the identified criteria and sub-criteria. Weighting and prioritization of criteria and sub-criteria were done using experts' opinions in different organizations of Urmia urban. According to the results of this weighting, the highest weight belongs to the building quality criterion. After that, the number of floors has the highest weight. Also, inconsistency coefficient in this weighting is 0.07. The basic layers related to natural, social and physical indicators identified were obtained from governmental organisations, municipal and master plan of Urmia urban. A then prepares, for extraction and new layers prepare in GIS  environment done. The following related Information Layers were generated using digital information and GIS databases based on the final weight of the criteria obtained by AHP hierarchical analysis. Next, standardization of each layer was performed using  fuzzy functions by Fuzzy Membership plugin in GIS environment and Based on this, standardized fuzzy maps for each criterion were prepared. In this step, Fuzzy Overlay Spatial Analysis plugin was used to integrate and overlap fuzzy maps created in GIS environment and using three levels of fuzzy gamma (0.9, 0.8 and 0.7), three land suitability maps were prepared for infill development in Urmia urban and among them a layer (with 0.8 gamma) indicating the capability and suitability of city limits lands for infill development and it was closer to the realities of the lands of Urmia urban. selected. Also in the next, different parts of Urmia urban were identified as suitable and unsuitable lands for infill development using Intersect and Reclass functions by dividing the land into 5 range completely inappropriate, inappropriate, partially inappropriate, appropriate and completely inappropriate on the map and the area of each was calculated in hectares and square meters. An exponential growth and per capita model was used to measure the role of infill development in preventing urban peripheral growth in the 1405 horizon. For this purpose, we first calculated the growth rate between the years 2011 to 2016 (1.1%) and then based on the growth rate obtained, the population of Urmia urban in 1405 by exponential growth formula where Pt is the population of the destination year, Po the population of the year of origin, r the growth rate and time interval is between years, 837147 people were predicted. Next, using the population and per capita land (98 square meters), the urban area was calculated in 1405 (118291000 square meters) (area = per capita * population). Finally, the rate of development of the urban during the next 10 years was determined by the above calculations (17291000 hectares) and also the amount of land that can be considered as reserve land by implementing infill development and there by reducing the peripheral development of the urban, an estimated 3680000.
Conclusion: The results show that most of the lands of Urmia urban are 77.61% in inappropriate group, so that, partially inappropriate lands with 26.33%, inappropriate lands with 28.31% and totally inappropriate with 20% is dedicated to himself. Suitable land group is also in the next category with 22.39%, so that, completely suitable and suitable lands is dedicated to himself with 6.68% and 15.69%, respectively. Also, according to the final result, whatever we move northeast of the urban of Urmia towards its center and southern parts, the land suitable for infill development is reduced. Therefore, most compatible and suitable for redevelopment and infill development are located in the northeast fabric and the least adapt in the southwest fabric and river bed. Results of the analysis performed to predict the amount of land that can be saved by implementing infill development on the horizon of 1405 in Urmia urban and by doing it, slowed the peripheral growth of the urban,  estimated 3680000 square meters. This amount of land indicates that storing it can significantly prevent sprawl urban growth and there by prevented the loss  of precious urban land, which is usually allocated to agriculture to provide for the food of citizens, and so on and it also protects the urban environment.

References:

1. Ayini, M. and Z. Ardestani, (2009): PYRAMID OF REGENERATION AND PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION, CRITERION FOR EVALUATING URBAN ENDOGENOUS DEVELOPMENT PLANS. City Identity Journal, 3(5),  pp: 47-58.


2. Asadi, A. (2014): Evaluation of Infill Development Strategy in Providing Housing and Capacity of decay Fabrics (Case Study of Zanjan City), Doctoral Thesis, Supervisor: Mohammad Reza Pourmohammadi, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geography and Planning, Tabriz University.


3. Amayesh Tarhe Consulting Engineers. (2006): Urmia City Civil(Master) and Development Plan, Urmia Master Plan Studies Report », Ministry of Roads and Urbanize, West Azerbaijan Provincial Roads and Urbanize Total Office.


4. Amayesh Tarhe Consulting Engineers. (2010): Urmia Master Plan Revision Plan, Vol 1, Urmia, West Azerbaijan Housing and Urban Development Organization.


5. Ahadnejad Roshti, M.  Ahmadi, L.  Shami, A. and  T. Heydari, (2013): A STUDY ON THE PROCESS OF BROWNFILD REDEVELOPMENT WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE CHANGE IN DENSITY AND LAND USES CASE STUDY: THE OLD TEXTURE’S NORTH OF ZANJAN(1996-2009). Geographical Planning of Space Quarterly Journal, 3(8), pp:  99-119.


6. Arvin, M. Pour ahmad, A. and S.  Zanganehshahraki, (2018): EVALUATION OF VACANT LANDS FOR INFILL DEVELOPMENT BY USED OF HYBRID DECISION-MAKING TECHNIQUES AND ARCGIS(CASE STUDY:AHVAZ CITY). Geographical Planning of Space Quarterly Journal, 7(26), pp:163-182.


7. Adams, D. and C. Watkins, (2008): Greenfields, brownfields and housing development. John Wiley & Sons.


8. Ahvenniemi, H. Pennanen, K. Knuuti, A. Arvola, A. and K. Viitanen, (2018): Impact of infill development on prices of existing apartments in Finnish urban neighbourhoods. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(3), pp: 157-167.


9. Banihashemi, O. H. Sarvar, R. and Y. A Ziyari, (2013): INFILL DEVELOPMENT AT URBAN TEXTURE WORN(CASE: ABAD NEIGHBORHOOD). Geography Jornal of  Territory(Sarzamin), 10(40), pp:41-54.


10. Biddle, T. Bertoia, T. Greaves, S. and P. Stopher, (2006): The costs of infill versus greenfield development–A review of recent literature. In 29th Australian Transport Research Forum, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.


11. Caves, R. W. (2004): Encyclopedia of the City. Routledge.


12. Clark, T. A. (2013): METROPOLITAN DENSITY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CARBON EMISSIONS: MULTI-ATTRIBUTE TRADEOFFS AND THEIR POLICY IMPLICATIONS. Energy Policy, 53, pp: 413-428.


13. Davidson, M.. and F. Dolnick, (Eds.).(2004): A planners dictionary. American Planning Association, Planning Advisory Service.


14. Dadashpour, H. Tagvaie, A. A. and N. Gane, (2014): INVESTIGATION OF INFILL DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY IN URBAN ENDOWMENTS SPACES CASE STUDY: AREA3, DISTRICT2, YAZD CITY. Journal of Islamic Iranian Urban Studies, 15, pp: 63-78.


15. Esmaeil Aliakbari, E. and M. Akbari, (2018): ZONNING THE INFILL DEVELOPMENT; AN EFFORT ON PHYSICAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO OF TEHRAN. Journal Physical Development Planning, 4(8), pp: 86-100.


16. Environment Protecting Agency (EPA) (1999): Parking Alternative: Making Way for Urban Infill and Brownfield Redevelopment. Washington DC: Urban and Economic development.


17. EPA, United States Environmental Protection Agency (2004): Making way for urban infill and brown field Redevelopment, New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons.


18. EPA, United States Environmental Protection Agency(2015): Attracting Infill Development  In Distressed Communities: 30 Strategies. California: Office of Sustainable Communities Smart Growth Program.


19. Farris’s, J. T. (2001): THE BARRIERS TO USING URBAN IMFILL DEVELOPMENT TO ACHIEVE SMART GROWTH. Journal of  Housing Policy Debate, 12(1), pp:1-30.


20. Falconer, M. K. and J. E. Frank, (1990): SUFFICIENCY OF INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY FOR INFILL DEVELOPMENT. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 116(3), pp: 137-148.


21. Gasemi Shaktei, S. and G. Haghighat Naieni, (2013): Provide a General Framework for Infill Development, Architecture Culture and Management, Tehran University of Art, Tehran, Iran.


22. Glaeser, E. L. and M. E. Kahn, (2010): THE GREENNESS OF CITIES: CARBAN DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT. Journal of urban economics, 67(3), pp: 404-418.


23. Hampanezad, E. (2009): An Analysis on the Physical Development of Urmia City, Master Thesis, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University of Najaf Abad.


24. Haaland, C. and C. K. Van den Bosch, (2015): CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES  FOR URBAN GREEN-SPACE PLANNING IN CITIES UNDERGOING DENSIFICATION: A REVIEW. Urban forestry & urban greening, 14(4), pp: 760-771.


25. Hamzehpour, R. Mohammadi Kazemabadi, L. and S. Ahmadi, (2017): Interstate Development; Optimal Pattern of Sardasht City Development in the Short Term Future, 4th International Conference on Environmental Management and Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.


26. Izadi, M. S. and N. Amiri, (2016): INTERNAL DEVELOPMENT, CONCORDANT, BALANCED AND STABLE PATTERN TO DEVELOP AND PROMOTE THE URBAN QUALITY, PLANNING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF URBAN MILITARY LAND. Bagh-e  Nazar Journal, 13(41), pp: 35-46.


27. Kim, J. and K. Larsen, (2017): CAN NEW URBANISM INFILL DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTE TO SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY? THE CASE OF ORLANDO, FOLORIDA. Urban Studies, 54(16), pp: 3843-3862.


28. Keinitz, R. (2001): Managing Maryland Growth: Models And Guidelines For Infill Development. Maryland Department of Planning Retrieved from.


29. Khalili, A.(2016): Optimal Model Presentation for Urban Smart Growth with Emphasis on Infill Development (Case Study: Urmia City), Master Thesis, Supervisor: Asghar Abedini, Urbanize Group, Faculty of Architecture, Urbanize and Art, University of Urmia.


30. Malczewski, J. (2016): Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Geographic Information Science (Advances in Geographic Information Science), Translated by Akbar Pahizgar and Atta Ghaffari Gilandeh, Samt Publications, Tehran.


31. Mirmogtadai, M. Rafeian, M. and E. Sangi, (2019): REFLECTION ON THE CONCEPT OF INTERMODAL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS NECESSITY IN URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS, Municipalities Magazine,10(98), pp: 44-51.


32. Mohammadi, M.   Malekipour, E. and  A. Sahebgharani, (2013): MODELING URBAN EXPANSION IN PRIPHERAL LANDS THROUGH CELLULAR AUTOMATA(CA) AND ANALYTIC HIERARCHICHAL PROCESS, CASE STUDY OF ISFAHANAS 7TH MUNICIPAL DISTRICT. Urban Reginoal Studies and Research, 5(18), pp: 175-192.


33. Malekshahi, G. Ghadami, M. and  M. Bagheri Hojat, (2018): ASSESSING THE CAPACITY OF INFILL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MAIN DOMAINS AND CONSTRUCTED TEXTURES IN AHVAZ (ZON2). Studeis of urban structure and function, 5(16), pp: 129-152.


34. Merlin, L. A. (2018): THE INFLUENCE OF INFILL DEVELOPMENT ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR.  Research in Transportation Economics, 67, pp: 54-67.


35. Nastaran, M. and N. Godsi, (2015): DENTIFICATION OF SUSCEPT ZONES OF INFILL DEVELOPMENT IN NOT FUNCTIONAL AREAS OF CITY CENTERS(CASE STUDY: ISFAHAN DISTRICT ONE). Research and urban planning, 6(20), pp: 51-68.


36. Nahlik, M. J. and M. V. Chester, (2014): TRANSIT-ORIENTED SMART GROWTH CONREDUCE  LIFE-CYCLE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND HOSEHOLD COSTS IN LOS ANGELES.  Transport policy, 35, pp: 21-30.


37. Nykänen, V. Lahti, P. Knuuti, A. Kurvinen, A. Niemi, O. and J. Vihola, (2012): Tammelan täydennysrakentamisen edullisuus. VTT asiakasraportti.


38. Ooi, J. T. and T. T. Le, (2013): THE  SPILL OVER  EFFECTS OF INFILL DEVELOPMENTS ON  LOCAL  HOSEING PRICES.  Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43(6), pp: 850-861.


39. Prizadi, T. (2012): Investigation of inner city development with emphasis on housing, Case study of Sanandaj City, Doctoral dissertation, Supervisor: Hamid Reza Varethi, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Isfahan.


40. Rafeian, M. Barati, N. and  M. Marzieh Aram, (2010): CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT ASSESSMENT OF BROWNFIELD AREAS IN CBD OF QAZVIN(ON THE BASIS OF INFILL DEVELOPMENT APPROACH). Journal of  Architecture and Urbanize, 3(5), pp: 45-62.


41. Sharifian, E. (2010): INFILL DEVELOPMENT, UTILIZING THE INNER CAPACITIES OF THE CITY, Scientific Journal of Perspective, 2(10), pp:47-50.


42. Statistical Center of Iran. (2012): http://www.amar.org./.


43. Stephen, M.W. (2001): Smart infill creating more livable communities in the bay area, greenbelt alliance.


44. Talen, E. (2013): Charter of the new urbanism. McGraw-Hill Prof Med/Tech.


45. Wheeler, S. M. (2002): Smart infill: Creating more livable communities in the Bay Area: A guide for Bay Area leaders. Greenbelt Alliance.


46. Zebardast, E. And H. Shad Zaviyeh, (2011): IDENTIFICATION OF FACTORS INFLUENCING URBAN SPRAWL AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH URBAN SPATIAL STRUCTURE(CASE STUDY: URMIA CITY). Journal of  Architecture and Urban Planning, 4(7), pp: 89-112.