An analysis on the reading of resilient communities against earthquake risk (case study: Tabriz metropolis)

Subject Areas : Urban planning

Amir Bakhshizadeh ¹ , Akbar Abdollahzadeh ^{2 *} , Noor Mohammad Monjazi ³

1 - PhD Student in Urban Planning, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran.
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Jundishapur University of Technology, Dezful, Dezful, Iran.

Received: 2023-02-23 Accepted : 2023-04-17 Published : 2023-10-23

Keywords: "Earthquake", "Development plans", "Tabriz metropolis", "Future studies", "resilience",

Abstract :

The question and idea of the present article is a mixture of the attitude of resilient social drivers against the earthquake crisis; A matter that is colored by the increase in the population of urbanization and urban development, so that in this way the organizations in charge of urban management pay attention to the management of the earthquake crisis. At the same time, the dimensions of this problem have been expanding, and one of its characteristics is the conflict between the drivers involved in organizing this phenomenon, which has increased its importance; Therefore, the aim of the research was to apply this concept to the geographical context of Tabriz metropolis, so that by identifying the parameters that affect the resilience of the region against the risk of earthquake, it can analyze the path of access to it. Based on the purpose, the current research is in the category of applied research, in terms of its nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical research. The statistical population of the current research includes experts in the field of crisis management and urban resilience, based on the opinions of 35 experts who are available and familiar with crisis management and urban resilience, the final questionnaire is entered into the Micmac software and the SWAT method is used to identify the key points of knowing the factors in It is used to achieve social resilience in the identified susceptible areas of Tabriz metropolis. The results of the research showed that knowledge and social awareness, education and skills, and ability and access to services are the most important drivers for creating resilient communities in Tabriz. It is very important to use the power of awareness in the direction of active participation to deal with natural disasters such as earthquakes and increase resilience. Why, if people have enough knowledge and skills and are empowered, we can hope that when an earthquake occurs, they will be able to save their lives and those of their loved ones by reacting and behaving appropriately, and will suffer less physical, financial and emotional damage.Extended AbstractIntroduction:      Tabriz city is located in the danger zone of high earthquakes, such as the uncoordinated and unprincipled growth of these cities, especially in the last few decades, construction in the boundaries of faults and prone areas, tectonic instabilities, the design and implementation of buildings and facilities and vital arteries disproportionate to the intensity of earthquakes. These cities have increased their vulnerability to earthquakes. The northern fault of Tabriz city, which is known as one of the most dangerous faults of Tabriz city, which passes through the north of Tabriz city and an area of Tabriz city, has caused the high risk of this region compared to the southern regions. This fault is one of the most fundamental tectonic structures in the northeast of Lake Urmia. Although several studies have been done on the earthquakes of Tabriz city in the past, but considering the population of Tabriz city which is more than 160,000 people and the industrial position of this city in the country of Iran, which has caused its rapid growth and development, the earthquake risk of this region should be investigated. It seems necessary in order to obtain more accurate results. Clarifying that today's changes will affect tomorrow's events is a reflection of future-research activities; Therefore, by knowing these developments and planning not to be surprised by the terrible storm of the earthquake crisis, it is possible to take the lever of management and control of the future and instead of facing a fixed future based on past trends, in order to achieve a desirable future with The resilience approach took a step forward. Research materials and methods: Based on the purpose, the current research is in the category of applied research, in terms of its nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical research.Methodology:      is based on the resilience approach against the earthquake crisis with a future-research, analytical-exploratory approach, which will be done by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. In this study, to collect primary information for documentary studies (library through reading books, theses, doctoral dissertations) and field observation and interviews with experts; Elites and subject matter experts will be used. The statistical population of the current research includes experts in the field of crisis management and urban resilience, in this regard, there is no explicit rule about the number of experts, and depending on the purpose of Delphi, the scope, the time of data collection, and the availability of resources, the number The participants are usually estimated to be between 15 and 50 people, and in the current research, 35 experts who are available and familiar with crisis management and urban resilience will be used. It is used to identify the key factors affecting the resilience of Tabriz metropolis. In this step, the factors extracted in the previous step are placed in a table two by two and are given to the panel members to value the effective factors based on specific numbers. Finally, the final questionnaire is entered into the Micmac software and based on The given scores are analyzed and key factors are extracted; And the SWAT method is used to identify the key points of knowing the factors in order to achieve social resilience in the identified susceptible areas of Tabriz metropolis. In the current research, after collecting the effective factors against the earthquake risk of Tabriz city using the environmental survey method and studying various sources, these factors were given to the members of the Delphi panel (consisting of 35 experts in the relevant field) in the form of a questionnaire in two rounds. Thus, in the first round, they were asked to determine the importance of each of the variables in the subject of the current research based on the Likert scale (5 degrees) and they were also asked to add their desired variables to the list in addition to the existing variables. do After examining the answers given in the first round of the Delphi panel, finally 87 variables were identified in 14 dimensions. In the second round of the Delphi panel, in order to finally confirm the variables for the analysis and continuation of the research, the factors confirmed in the first round in the form of a questionnaire They have been given to the relevant experts to re-score them. The results of the questionnaires in the second round were such that all the factors in the second round have been approved to continue the work by the experts of the Delphi panel. The factors and factors of the research have been mentionedResults and discussion:       The results of the research showed that knowledge and social awareness, education and skills, ability and access to services are the most important drivers for creating resilient communities in Tabriz. Therefore, it is very important to adopt community-oriented crisis management solutions, empower citizens and use the power of awareness in order to actively participate in dealing with natural disasters such as earthquakes and increasing resilience. Why, if people have enough awareness and skills and are empowered, we can hope that when an earthquake occurs, they will be able to save their lives and those of their loved ones by reacting and behaving appropriately, and will suffer less physical, financial, and emotional damage. On the other hand, it should be kept in mind that the failure of modernization policies in the form of large-scale plans and re-reading the role of local communities in planning, along with the emergence of participatory paradigms in planning, necessitates the need to pay attention to individual and local measures. The emphasis of international assemblies on creating resilient communities and emphasizing the role of the local government in realizing this issue marks the beginning of a movement from the bottom up. These measures range from educating residents to formulating building regulations at local levels.Conclusion:      The state of resilience of Tabriz city against the risk of earthquake is in a conservative position and it should be planned and improved by reducing the weak points and taking advantage of the opportunities; In this regard, the following strategies are suggested

References:

1. Abedini M, Eshghi Chaharborj, A, Alavi, S. (2022), evaluation of the physical resilience of the city in different earthquake scenarios, a case study: the six districts of Tehran. Geographical space. 1401; 22 (78): 191-211. (In Persian).


2. Adger, W. N., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., & Rockström, J. (2005). Socialecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science, 309(5737), 1036-1039.


3. Afifi, M. E. (2022). Evaluation of Resilience of Urban Decay Texture against Earthquake using GIS (Case study: District 2 of Bandar Abbās Municipality). Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal, 3(2), 69-88. (In Persian)


4. Ahmadi, G., pour hasan zadeh, M. H., & soleimannezhad, A. (2020). An Analysis of the Resilience of Urban Communities to Earthquakes (A Case Study of the Cities of Ardebil, Tabriz and Urmia). 13(49), 109-134. (In Persian)


5. Aldrich, D. P. (2012). Building resilience: Social capital in post-disaster recovery: University of Chicago Press.


6. Amoozad Khalili S, Rashidy A, Pirdashti H. Considering the role of public participation to improve urban crisis management and its effective elements based on Ragers’ public participation theory, Case study: Behshar city. Disaster Prev. Manag. Know. 2018; 8 (3) :255-268


7. Armitage, D., Béné, C., Charles, A. T., Johnson, D., & Allison, E. H. (2012). The interplay of well-being and resilience in applying a social-ecological perspective. Ecology and Society, 17(4).22.


8. Bagheri maragheh N, Motamedi M, Mafi E. (2022), Assessing the resilience of Shirvan city in the face of earthquakes. Journal title 2022; 22 (64) :329-347. (In Persian).


9. Berman, Y., & Phillips, D. (2000). Indicators of social quality and social exclusion at national and community level. Social Indicators Research, 50(3), 329-350.


10. Cacioppo, J. T., Reis, H. T., & Zautra, A. J. (2011). Social resilience: The value of social fitness with an application to the military. American Psychologist, 66(1), 43-51.


11. Campbell, K.A., Laurien, F., Czajkowski, J., Keating, A., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., & Montgomery, M. (2019). First insights from the Flood Resilience Measurement Tool: A large-scale community flood resilience analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 40 e101257. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101257.


12. Cariolet, Jean-Marie; Vuillet, Marc; Diab, Youssef (2019). Mapping urban resilience to disasters – A review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 51(127), 101746, doi:10.1016/j.scs.2019.101746


13. Carpenter, A. (2015). Resilience in the social and physical realms: Lessons from the Gulf International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 14, 290-301.


14. Dadashpour, H. Adeli, Z. (2015). Measuring resilience capacities in Qazvin urban complex. Crisis Management 4(8): 73-84. (In Persian)


15. Dadazade Seilabi,, Rasoulzadeh, Z., & Tahmasebi Moghaddam, H. (2021). Measuring spatial justice in the spatial structure of Tabriz metropolis with emphasis on the spatial distribution of educational centers. Urban Environmental Planning and Development, 1(2), 35-50. (In Persian).


16. Davoudi, S. K. Shaw, L. J. Haider, A. E. Quinlan, G. D. Peterson, C. Wilkinson, H. Fünfgeld, D. McEvoy, L. Porter and S. Davoudi, (2012), Resilience: A Bridging Concept or a Dead End? “Reframing” Resilience: Challenges for Planning Theory and Practice Interacting Traps: Resilience Assessment of a Pasture Management System in Northern Afghanistan Urban Resilience: What Does it Mean in Planning Practice? Resilience as a Useful Concept for Climate Change Adaptation? The Politics of Resilience for Planning: A Cautionary Note. Planning Theory & Practice 13(2), 299-333.


17. Ebadalezadeh Maleki, S., Khanlou, N., Ziari, K., Shali Amini, Vahid, (2017), measuring and evaluating social resilience to deal with natural crises; Case study: Earthquake in the historical neighborhoods of Ardabil city. Urban and rural management. 16 (48):263-280. (In Persian).


18. Endfield, G. H. (2007). Archival explorations of climate variability and social vulnerability in colonial Mexico. Climatic Change, 83(1-2), 9.


19. Gillespie‐Marthaler, L., Nelson, K., Baroud, H., & Abkowitz, M. (2019). Selecting indicators for assessing community sustainable resilience. Risk Analysis, 39(11), 2479-2498.


20. Hamborg, S. J. N. Meya, K. Eisenack and T. Raabe (2020), Rethinking resilience: A cross-epistemic resilience framework for interdisciplinary energy research. Energy Research & Social Science 59, 101285.


21. Joerin, J., Shaw, R., Takeuchi, Y., & Krishnamurthy, R. (2014). The adoption of a climate disaster resilience index in Chennai, India. Disasters, 38(3), 540-561. doi:10.1111/disa.12058. Keyes, C. L. M. (1998). Social well-being. Social Psychology Quarterly, 121-140.


22. Khalili, S., Harre, M., & Morley, P. (2015). A temporal framework of social resilience indicators of communities to flood, case studies: Wagga wagga and Kempsey, NSW, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 13, 248-254.


23. Kotzee, I., & Reyers, B. (2016). Piloting a social-ecological index for measuring flood resilience: A composite index approach. Ecological Indicators, 60, 45-53.26


24. Kuhlicke, C., Scolobig, A., Tapsell, S., Steinführer, A., & De Marchi, B. (2011). Contextualizing social vulnerability: findings from case studies across Europe. Natural Hazards, 58(2), 789-810.


25. Kwok, A. H., Doyle, E. E. H., Becker, J., Johnston, D., & Paton, D. (2016). What is ‘social resilience’? Perspectives of disaster researchers, emergency management practitioners, and policymakers in New Zealand. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 19, 197-211.


26. Liu, D. (2019), Evaluating the dynamic resilience process of a regional water resource system through the nexus approach and resilience routing analysis. Journal of Hydrology 578, 12458.


27. Lucini, B. (2013). Social capi Scheffran, J., Marmer, E., & Sow, P. (2012). Migration as a contribution to resilience and innovation in climate adaptation: Social networks and co-development in Northwest Applied Geography, 33, 119-127.


28. Lundgren, L., & Jonsson, A. C. (2012). Assessment of social vulnerability: A literature review of vulnerability related to climate change and natural hazards. Linköping University Electronic Press.


29. Luo D, Eicher M, White K. (2020), Individual resilience in adult cancer care: A concept analysis. Int J Nurs Stud. 102:103467. doi: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2019.103467. PMID: 31810018.


30. Maclean, K., Cuthill, M., & Ross, H. (2014). Six attributes of social resilience. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 57(1), 144-156.


31. Maguire, B., & Hagan, P. (2008). Disasters and communities: understanding social resilience. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, The, 22(2), 16.


32. Marshall, N. A. (2010). Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries. Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 36-43.


33. Marshall, N. A., & Marshall, P. A. (2009). Conceptualizing and operationalizing social resilience within commercial fisheries in northern Australia. Ecology and Society, 12, (1).


34. Martinez, L. A. and A. S. Opalinski (2019). "Building the Concept of Nurturing Resilience." Journal of Pediatric Nursing 48, 63-71.


35. Mayunga, J. S. (2007). Understanding and applying the concept of community disaster resilience: a capital-based approach. Summer Academy for Social Vulnerability and Resilience Building, 1(1), 1-16.


36. Mihunov, V. V, Lam, N.S N, Robert V. Rohli, Zou, L, (2019), Emerging disparities in community resilience to drought hazard in south-central United States: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 41. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918313189#abs0010.


37. Momeni, K, (2022), regression analysis of resilience with step-by-step and hierarchical AHP technique from the perspective of earthquake crisis (case study: Ilam city), Urban and Rural Management, 66, 119-136. (In Persian)


38. Namjoo, F., Samadzadeh, R., & Masoumi, M. (2021). Assessment of urban resilience against earthquake risk (Case study: Tabriz Metropolis). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 9(4), 201-219. (In Persian).


39. Osti,R(2006). Forms of community participation and agencies role for the implemention of water induced disaster management,Disaster prevetion and management,1,pp.1-25.


40. Pakru N, Moosavi M S. Urban Resilience Assessment on Earthquake (Case Study: District 1 of Tabriz City). Journal title 2023; 23 (68) :115-135. (In Persian).


41. Rahimi, A. (2020). Urban Land Policies and Their Impact on the Development of Tabriz. 13(48), 109-130. (In Persian).


42. Rajaei, S. A., Mansourian, H., & Soltani, M. (2021). Spatial analysis of urban resilience against earthquakes Case study: Region 1 of Tehran. Sustainable city, 4(1), 1-13. (In Persian).


43. Ribeiro, P. J. G. and L. A. Pena Jardim Gonçalves (2019). Urban resilience: A conceptual framework. Sustainable Cities and Society, 50, 101625.


44. Rufat, S., Tate, E., Burton, C. G., & Maroof, A. S. (2015). Social vulnerability to floods: Review of case studies and implications for measurement. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 14, 470-486. 30


45. Ruiz-Mallén, I., & Corbera, E. (2013). Community-based conservation and traditional ecological knowledge: implications for social-ecological resilience. Ecology and Society, 18(4).


46. Saja, A. A., Goonetilleke, A., Teo, M., & Ziyath, A. M. (2019). A critical review of social resilience assessment frameworks in disaster management. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 35, 101096.


47. Saja, A. A., Teo, M., Goonetilleke, A., & Ziyath, A. M. (2018). An inclusive and adaptive framework for measuring social resilience to disasters. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 28, 862-873.


48. Saja, A. M. A. A. Goonetilleke, M. Teo and A. M. Ziyath (2019), A Critical Review of Social Resilience Properties and Pathways in Disaster Management. Int J Disaster Risk Sci, 12, 790-804 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00378-y.


49. Schwarz, A. M., Béné, C., Bennett, G., Boso, D., Hilly, Z., Paul, C., Posala, R. Sibiti, S. & Andrew, N. (2011). Vulnerability and resilience of remote rural communities to shocks and global changes: Empirical analysis from Solomon Islands. Global Environmental Change, 21(3), 1128-1140.


50. sEhlaghi, M. (2020), Explaining the identity of the place and its formation process in the public spaces of the city, Doctoral Thesis, Department of Geography and Planning, Zanjan University. (In Persian).


51. Speranza, C. I., Wiesmann, U., & Rist, S. (2014). An indicator framework for assessing livelihood resilience in the context of social–ecological dynamics. Global Environmental Change, 28, 109-119.


52. Statistical Center of Iran, (2016). https://www.amar.org.ir/. (In Persian).


53. Süss, H. and U. Ehlert (2020), Psychological resilience during the perimenopause. Maturitas, 131, 48-56.


54. tal and sociological resilience in megacities context. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 4(1), 58-71.


55. Tedrus G, Limongi J. Zuntini J, (2020), Resilience, quality of life, and clinical aspects of patients with epilepsy. Epilepsy Behav.103(PtA): 106398. doi: 10.1016/j.yebeh.2019.06.041. Epub 2019 Oct 24. PMID: 31668786.


56. Wang, Y; Zhan, J; Xu, X; Li, L; Chen, P; Hansen, M, (2019). Measuring the resilience of an airport network Measuring the resilience of an airport network. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, (49), S1000936119303280. doi:10.1016/j.cja.2019.08.023.


57. Yarahmadi, M., Nikpour, A., Lotfi, P. (2018). Investigating the physical resilience of the city against earthquakes (case study: Noorabad Mamsani). Geographical Explorations of Desert Regions, 7(2), 147-171. (In Persian).


58. Zali, N., & Sohrab, M. (2018). An Analysis of the Influential factors in Regional Resiliency Using TRIZ Technique; A Case Sudy in Hamedan Province. Regional Planning, 8(29), 41-52. (In Persian).


59. Zali, N., (2017), Strategic foresight and regional policy making with a scenario writing approach, Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14(4), 33-54. (In Persian).


60. Zeynali Azim, A., & Babazadeh Oskouei, S. (2022). Analyzing of Creating a Livable Smart City in the City of Tabriz. Urban Economics and Planning, 3(4), 24-37. (In Persian)