Analysis of Factors Affecting The Development of Border Cities By Futures Studies Approach(Case study: city of Zabol)

Subject Areas : Urban and Regional Planning Studies

Saeed Najafi ¹ ( PhD Candidate in Geography and Urban Planning, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran )

Received: 2017-10-08 Accepted : 2019-04-26 Published : 2019-11-22

Keywords: development, border cities, futures studies Approach,

Abstract :

Geographical location and communication Zabol border provinces has led to the development of the city,the regional development in the province and the country's relations with the countries of the region.What is required revision in approach and application of new tools in planning.Foresight as a new approach, a process that will lead to sustainable results is planned.In this regard, this research, foresight approach to the analysis of the factors influencing the development of border cities and the influence of these factors on each other and on the future status of the city of Zabol about the study.New research method based on futures, explain and to collect information from documents and survey methods were used.For data analysis,interaction/structure is used by software MICMAC. The results showed that in the first stage, Delphi method, 25 factors were identified. What is the distribution of the variables affecting the future development of the situation in the border town of Zabol you can see,the situation is more unstable system variables are scattered around the shaft diagonal screen.So five categories(factors influencing, planar factors, regulatory factors, impressionable factors and independent factors) are identifiable.The highest amount of influence variables tourism potentials, immigration, environmental and natural and agricultural capacity, The central role of the city in Sistan area, transit benefits the East, inefficient executives and political conflict, poor of rail connections with neighboring population centers, The potential occurrence and intensity of social abnormalities,being in the international narcotics trade and the situation will be the future development of the city.

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