Modeling the effects of climate change on the water resources of Jajroud river basin using SWAT model
Subject Areas : Environmental managmentHamidreza Fardanesh 1 , Seyedeh Hoda Rahmati 2 * , Hossein Babazadeh 3 , Bagher Ghermezcheshmeh 4 , Amirhooman Hemmasi 5
1 - Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. *(Corresponding Author)
3 - Professor, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
4 - Research Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran.
5 - Professor, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Keywords: Climate change, Jajroud basin, LARS-WG model, AOGCM models, runoff, SWAT. ,
Abstract :
Background and Objective: Examining the performance of surface water resources including dams reservoirs in facing the effects of climate change in different regions seems necessary and the importance of this issue is double in arid and semi-arid regions, that is why the upcoming research on the projects located in the catchment area of Jajroud and Haraz rivers. Located in the northeast of Tehran, it is concentrated. The projects of this watershed include Latiyan, Mamloo and Lar dams, which aim to provide drinking and sanitation needs, control and regulate surface flows (seasonal floods), supply water needed for agriculture, industry, raising the standard of living, social welfare, and balance security. and economic self-sufficiency have been established. Due to the ever-increasing population, the demand for water resources is continuously increasing. This is in a situation where limited water resources and the continuation of global warming fuel the existing crises. According to the mentioned cases, in this research, it is tried to study the effects of climate change on meeting the goals of these dams on the one hand, and on the other hand, with modeling and long-term forecasting of the flow, a reliable estimate of the water storage status of the reservoirs as well as meeting the needs. to be presented in order to pave the way for the actions of the officials to reduce the demand crisis of the increasing needs in the coming years.
Material and Methodology: The current research shows the effects of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in future periods with the help of LARS-WG statistical model and SWAT conceptual model. Jajroud basin, one of the sub-basins of Salt Lake, was chosen for the case study. For this purpose, first the temperature and precipitation data of 5 models from the LARS-WG model program were evaluated for the mentioned basin. Then the simulation of these parameters was done for three 20-year periods (2081-2100, 2040-2021 and 2051-2070) and under two scenarios SSP 245 and SSP 585 for the selected stations.
Findings: Overall, the results indicate a decrease-increase in precipitation and an increase in temperature compared to the observation period. Next, the SWAT model was recalibrated to simulate the daily flow of the basin. With the introduction of micro-scaled temperature and rainfall values, the flow of future simulation periods for this purpose, SWAT model has been recalibrated and validated for the existing conditions of the basin using 4 hydrometric stations, which has a coefficient of determination (R2) for the hydrometric stations, respectively, between 65. 0.0 to 0.85 and 0.51 to 0.60 were obtained. The modeling results in the future time periods leading to the year 2100 showed that in the two scenarios SSP245 and SSP 585, the maximum and minimum temperature values will be 5.4 and 4.8 degrees Celsius, respectively. Therefore, considering these results, we can understand that in the future, there will be changes not only in the amount of precipitation, but also in the pattern of precipitation. Finally, the general results show the displacement of the peak runoff occurrence time in the monthly time scale in the future periods compared to the base period.
Discussion and Conclusion: Due to these results, it can be said that in the future, we will have changes in both the amount of precipitation and the pattern of precipitation. Finally, the general results show the displacement of the peak runoff occurrence time in the monthly time scale in the future periods compared to the base period. The hydrological simulation in the basins showed that the amount of river flow is greatly affected by the amount of rainfall and this has a good effect on the inflow, and the results of the climatic scenarios proved the increase in temperature.
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