Investigation of Climate Change on the Southern Coastal of the Caspian Sea Using SDSM, LARS-WG and Artificial Neural Network

Subject Areas : Climatology

Elham Ghasemifar ¹ , Bohloul Alijani ² , Mohammad Salighe ³

1 - Phd student, satellite climatology.Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran,Iran.
2 - استادآب و هواشناسی و مدیر قطب علمی تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی، دانشگاه خوارزمی،تهران،ایران.
3 - Prof. of climatology, and member of the center of Excellence for spatial Analysis of the Environmental Hazards,Kharazmi University,Tehran.Iran.

Received: 2016-11-18 Accepted : 2017-06-03 Published : 2017-03-19

Keywords: Downscaling, minimum and maximum temperatures, climate change scenarios, the coast of Caspian Sea,

Abstract :

Introduction   Average  surface  temperatures  of the Northern Hemisphere  have risen in response to climate change by 0.76°C over the past 150 years (IPCC, 2007) .These temperature  increases  have been  accompanied  by a reduction in snow  and  ice cover, retreat of sea ice and mountain glaciers, a longer growing season and earlier arrival of spring,  increased  frequency of extreme rainfall events, and more than 25,000  other changes in physical and biological indicators of global warming (Rosenzweig et al., 2008). Numerical models have used in such research after the late of year 1970s. The downscaling software such as SDSM,LARS_WG and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) became very common in the recent decades(e.g. Khan, et al., 2006).The results have showed that  the SDSM is the most capable of reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data in its downscaled  results  with 95%  confidence  level, the  ANN  is the least capable in this respect, and the LARS-WG  is in between SDSM and ANN. According to Lopes et al (2008) in Assessment of climate change in Lisbon, the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature whereas LARS-WG simulations is slightly better for  precipitation.   Material and methods This research  has used downscaled methods for  the minimum  and maximum temperatures of  five stations  including Anzali,  Rasht, Babolsar, Ramsar and Gorgan in the southern coastal of the Caspian sea by three models  namely LARS-WG, SDSM and ANN during 1961-90 and 2010-2039 period under three scenarios of A1 , A2 , And  B2 . For this purpose, first the observed data of 1961-90 period were obtained from Meteorological Organization of Iran. Since GCMs are restricted in their usefulness for local impact studies with their coarse spatial resolution (typically 50,000 km2) and inability to resolve important sub–grid scale features such as clouds and topography, the three downscaling models namely SDSM, LARS_WG and ANN  were used to downscaling these coarse data. Two GCM data were obtained from the website: http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi?Scenarios. Root Mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Coefficient of determination ( ) were used to assessing the capability of the models.   Result and discussions SDSM model results showed very small error ( 0.01 to 0.06°C) between observed and generate data using NCEP predictors-based data with  a little more discrepancy using HADCM3 predictors-based data . The model output showed minimum and maximum temperature will rise during the future period with the exception of the months including April ,May and November. This warming trend was same for ANN with error range of   0.2 to 0.8°C. LARS-WG simulation showed temperature will rise for all months of the year with the error range of  0.1 to 0.2°C.  The comparison betweem three models showed that the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature.   Conclusion                   According to this study the temperature increased during the target period. Temperature will increase during future period too.The SDSM  and ANN model showed decrease in the temperature of the months including April, May and November. But the LARS_WG showed increase in the temperature in all month and all stations. The comparison of the models showed that the SDSM model has recorded the lowest error in the predicting of future temperatures.

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