Presenting a model for increasing the Environmental Resilience of Kanarak city against Floods Caused by Tropical Storms with an emphasis on Futures Studies
Subject Areas : Climatology
Ebrahim Forozan Mehr
1
(Ph.D. student of the Department of Geography and Urban Planning - Islamic Azad University - IslamShahr Branch)
azadeh arbabi sabzevari
2
(Associate Professor of Department of Geography and Urban Planning - Islamic Azad University - Islam Shahr Branch)
Fatemeh Adibi Saadinejad
3
(Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr Branch, Iran)
Keywords: Urban Resilience, Tropical Rains, Futures Studies, Scenario Writing, Kanarak City,
Abstract :
Today, the Resilience of cities against natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, . The statistical population of this research included relevant experts and elites, who according to the objectives of the research and to achieve the desired model with a future research approach through interviews with elites and experts and using a non-random purposeful sampling method (in a predetermined manner) done), and finally the number of 15 people was obtained. In order to identify the key drivers, structural analysis method (interaction effects) in the form of MICMAC software was also used for scenario writing using Scenario Wizard software. The findings of the research showed that the drivers of "Surface Water Collection Channel" will have the most influence through their alternative futures (probable state) on other drivers in determining the futures, and the drivers of "Changing the Structure of Organizations" Based on the Relationship of Alternative futures, it has received the most influence from other alternative futures. Also, the drivers of Flood Zoning Map, "Early Warning System of Natural Hazards and (GIS) and It has been Alternative futures of that part Intermittent propellants.