Presenting the Model for Prospecting Future Profits by Using the Financial Ratios Combination of Accepted Companies in Tehran’s Stock Exchange

Subject Areas : Management Accounting

Mehdi Moradzadeh Fard ¹ , Azadeh Poorbagheri ²

1 - نویسنده اول و مسئول مکاتبات
2 - ندارد

Received: 2009-07-11 Accepted : 2009-09-16 Published : 2009-07-23

Keywords: : operating profit, net operating assets, Profit Margin, Operating Liabilities Leverag, Research and Development costs,

Abstract :

This thesis surveys the possibility of prospecting future profits by using the financial ratios combination of accepted companies in Tehran’s stock exchange. Because of this reason the eight financial ratios as fallows; Growth in Sales (GSALES), Growth in Net Operating Assets (GNOA), Return on Net Operating Assets (RNOA), Operating Assets Turnover (ATO), Operating  Liabilities Leverage(OLLEV), Profit Margin (PM), Advertising costs intensity (ADV) and Research and Development costs intensity (RD) were selected as independent variables and on the other hand the variable of Logarithm Net Operating Assets (LOGNOA) was considered as a control variable. So the eight spillover hypotheses were suggested to prove that there is a meaningful relation between the operating profit and each of these mentioned ratios. The research was being surveyed within a decade from the years 1377 to 1386.The select sample contained 55 companies which were elected from among accepted ones in Tehran’s stock exchange. The research scheme contains fitting of Regression model within the years 1377 to 1385, forecasting the operating profit in 1386 and lastly surveying accuracy of forecasting by comparing actual estimated values through the pair sampling test. the used statistical method in this research was the analysis of solidarity through Regression by using PLS technique (the least squares combined), which was done in two processes; the single variable analysis and the multiple Regression. All tests were done by means of the SPSS (15th writing) and the EVIEWS (4th writing) softwares. According to the obtained results from the research hypotheses’ test, it was confirmed that there is a meaningful relation between the logarithm net operating assets (control variable), sales growth, return on net operating assets, operating assets turnover, research and development costs intensity and operating profit. Also according to the results of the multiple regression and the step by step method, the main hypothesis of this research was confirmed which means that it is absolutely possible to prospect the future profits by using the financial ratios combination of productive companies that are accepted in Tehran’s stock exchange.