A New Estimation Method of Parallel Power Transformers Expected Failure Cost

Subject Areas : Renewable energy

Hadi Shams solari ¹ , Behroz Majidi ² , Majid Moazzami ³

1 - Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2 - Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
3 - Smart Microgrid Research Center- Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

Received: 2020-06-26 Accepted : 2020-10-15 Published : 2021-02-19

Keywords: reliability, Power transformers, Poisson Process, Expected Failure Cost, Cost of Risk, Failure Correlation,

Abstract :

Risk level evaluation of power systems and reduction of its related destructive effects costs have been transformed to one of the basic challenges in power industry’s operation and scheduling. In this paper a new method for mathematical modeling of failure correlation of parallel transformers using Poisson process and multi-Gaussian Copula function is presented. In this method, by using computation of selected reliability indices and related costs, a modeling method for estimation of expectation value of failure cost of parallel transformers with failure correlation and also cost of annual risk of power system has been proposed. According to the capability of production of stage-gate process of the system real mode and failure correlation and probability of parallel transformers, sequential Monte Carlo method for calculation of system’s reliability indices and related costs estimation has been employed. Simulation results of the proposed method show that annual increase of failure correlation probability of parallel transformers in power stations, will lead to increase of expectation value of their failure, level and cost of power system’s risk.

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