Evaluation Fundamental based risk model in predicting stock prices

Subject Areas : Journal of Investment Knowledge

Ehsan kamali ¹ , Seyyed Abbas Hashemi ² , Dariush Foroughi ³

1 - Ph.D. Candidate of Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan Science & Research Branch, Department of Accounting
2 - Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Isfahan
3 - Assistant Professor of Accounting, University of Isfahan

Received: 2014-02-17 Accepted : 2014-05-21 Published : 2014-05-21

Keywords: Fundamental based risk model, the predicted value stocks, value stocks, risk-free rate of return, risk-adjustment,

Abstract :

How to measure the risks is one of the most challenging issues in the stock valuation models. This study is designed based on a new methodology for risk measurement in valuation models based on fundamental factors related. Therefore beta of excess equity returns and betas of size and book-to-market based on earnings, as the risk adjustment was combined to the present value based on risk-free rate in valuating model. Evaluation process was conducted in two stages, first during the period 2002 to 2011 using short time-series regressions, risk-adjustment coefficients were calculated at three levels: firm, industry and selected portfolios and the coefficients in the second stage along with other required data in the research model used to predict the stock price for the year 2012. The results show good performance of applying the model to predict the stock price of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange.