Investigating the Asymmetric Relationship between Oil Price and the Covid-19 Pandemic with Trading Value on the Stock Exchange

Subject Areas : Journal of Investment Knowledge

masoumeh dadgar ¹ , vida varahrami ²

1 - PhD student of development economics, Economics and social science faculty, Alzahra university.
2 - Assistant professor, Economics and Political Sciences faculty, Shahid Beheshti university

Received: 2020-08-15 Accepted : 2020-11-30 Published : 2023-09-23

Keywords: Corona virus, Stock Market, stock index, NARDL, oil prices,

Abstract :

Forecasting the stock market in each period has been difficult and the value of stock trading has been affected by various factors. Among these factors have been the oil and gas sector, especially in countries that depend on the revenue from their sales. On the other hand, the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has led to profound changes in both areas. Therefore, in this article, the relationship between oil prices and the Iranian stock market is examined with respect to the prevalence of the Corona pandemic. Understanding the behavior dynamics of the stock exchange value index can help to more accurately predict the future behavior of this variable. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, as well as the simultaneous impact of the corona pandemic news and the rate of corona virus infection on the value of the Iranian stock exchange. In the present paper, nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) in the time period (1399: 05: 15-1398: 11: 30) has been used. The results show that in the long run, rising oil prices have a significant asymmetric effect on stock exchange value. On the other hand, in the short run, the rate of Covid-19 patients has a positive relationship without meaning and the Covid-19 media index has a negative relationship with meaning with the value of stock exchange trading.

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