Application of Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm and Artificial Neural Networks in Predicting Profit Manipulation
Subject Areas : Journal of Investment Knowledge
Morteza Hoseinalinezhad
1
(Ph.D Candidate, Accounting Department, ghaemshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, ghaemshahr, Iran)
Seyed Mohamad Hassan Hashemi Kucheksarai
2
(Assistance Prof, Accounting Department, ghaemshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, ghaemshahr, Iran,)
Ali Jafari
3
(Assistance Prof, Accounting Department, ghaemshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, ghaemshahr, Iran)
Keywords: Prediction, Genetic algorithm, profit manipulation, particle swarm, Artificial Neural Networks,
Abstract :
Profit management has been one of the most controversial topics in recent research. Most research on earnings management has examined the linear relationship between independent variables and earnings management using statistical methods but they did not use these variables to predict earnings management. Today, with the growth of information technology and the introduction of artificial intelligence, including artificial neural networks into the field of scientific research, it has become possible to study nonlinear relationships between variables. In this study, an attempt was made to estimate optional accruals for predicting earnings management using artificial neural networks. Also in this research, the genetic algorithm optimizer model and Particle swarm has been used to optimize the weights of the artificial neural network model to enhance the predictive power. Then, the ability to predict profit management was evaluated using the modified Jones statistical model, artificial neural network and the combined technique of genetic algorithm, Particle swarm and neural network. The sample used in this study included 150 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2015 and 2020. Findings showed that the artificial neural network has a high ability to predict profit management, compared to the modified Jones linear model. The findings also indicate that the accuracy and ability of the combined model of genetic algorithm, particle swarm and neural network in predicting profit management is higher than the combined model of genetic algorithm-artificial neural network.
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