Measuring multiple bubbles in the housing sector (land and rent house): A recursive unit root test approach

Subject Areas : Journal of Investment Knowledge

Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd ¹ , omolbanin Jalali ² , Mohammad Rahimi Ghasemabadi ³

1 - Postdoctoral Researcher, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
2 - Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Yazd University
3 - Master of Science in Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

Received: 2018-01-23 Accepted : 2018-07-18 Published : 2020-04-20

Keywords: Mild Explosive Behavior, Rent House, House, land, Single and Multiple Bubbles,

Abstract :

The housing sector is one of the key sectors of Iran, which is of great importance.One of the issues that this market faces is the presence of speculators in this market, which leads to the bubble of this market and, thus, imposes a lot of costs on society. In this regard, determining the bubble and date stamping and determining the type of existing bubbles in a single or multiple type can be of great help to policymakers. Considering this, the main objective of the present study was to investigate the bubbles dating in the housing market (land and rent house), the date stamping and determination of the single or multiple bubbles.The method used in this study is recursive unit root approach provided by Philips et al (2013), known as RADF and GSADF tests. The results of this study showed that Tehran and all urban areas, large cities, small and medium sized cities in the years 1382 to 1392 have experienced bubble periods at land prices and rentals, of which the most important bubble interval was from 1386 to 1387. There were also bubble periods in land prices and rentals from 1390 to 1392.

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