Dependency structure between the markets of Iran, Turkey, China and the United Arab Emirates, according the approach of Copula – Markov Switching

Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis

S. Mozaffar Mirbargkar ¹ , Maryam Sohrabi ²

1 - Assistant Professor in Economy, Department of Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University Rasht, Iran
2 - P.HD. Student, Financial engineering, Department of Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University Rasht, Iran

Received: 2018-07-11 Accepted : 2019-04-22 Published : 2020-09-22

Keywords: share market, dependence structure, GARCH models, Markov switching-Copula functi,

Abstract :

Studying, and analyzing the dependency structure between the markets at the economic boom and bust have been suggested by the researchers and theorists of different areas. Furthermore, there have been various models to explain the correlation between the financial markets. Among them, the Copula model has a high ability to recognize the asymmetric dependence structure. The present research is going to study the dependency structure in the financial markets of four countries; Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China at the boom and bust cycling in the period of 2014-2017, applying conditional heterogeneity variance model (GARCH), the Markov switching approach, and the Copula functions. The results illustrate that there is an asymmetric structure in every regime, as at the recession time, the correlation between these markets and Iranian market would be higher than the boom time.

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