The Design and Calibration of a New Keynesian DSGE Model with Stock Market Dynamics in Iran Economy
Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities AnalysisAhmad Salahmanesh 1 , Seyed Aziz Arman 2 , Ebrahim Anvari 3 , Abdollah Pourjavan 4
1 - Assistant Professor in Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2 - Associate Professor in Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz,
3 - Assistant Professor in Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz,
4 - Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Keywords: Stock Market, DSGE, Macroeconomic variables,
Abstract :
Financial markets especially capital market can make strong connections with other parts of the economy. After 2007/2008 financial crisis and global extensive economic recession, the economists show interest in the financial markets function again. The purpose of this study is to design and calibrate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium new Keynesian model with Stock market dynamism to investigate the stock market channal effectiveness mechanism on macroeconomics variables. So an open DSGE model containing households, firms, banks, government and central bank was designed and after log-linearization, then the model’s parameters were calibrated using quarterly data 1996:3-2013:2 and experimental studies results. This study shows that a negative shock to stock price index in the DSGE model via financial accelerator and bank capital channel will result in decrease production, consumption, investment, deposits and inflation and therefor the macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment and production have stronger relationship with stock market dynamism
* احمدیان، اعظم (1394). مدلسازی هجوم بانکی در چارچوب تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی برای ایران. مجله علمی-پژوهشی سیاستگذاری اقتصادی، 7 (14)، 1-27.
* بانک مرکزی ج.ا.ا. (1394). بانک اطلاعات سری زمانی، حسابهای ملی ایران. قابل دسترس در: http://tsd.cbi.ir.
* بیات، مرضیه، افشاری، زهرا و توکلیان، حسین (1395). سیاست پولی و شاخص کل قیمت سهام در چارچوب یک مدل DSGE، فصلنامه پژوهشها و سیاستهای اقتصادی، 24 (78)، 171-206.
* خیابانی، ناصر و امیری، حسین (1393). جایگاه سیاستهای پولی و مالی با تأکید بر بخش نفت با استفاده از مدلهای DSGE، فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 14(54)، 133-173.
* درگاهی، حسن و هادیان، مهدی (1395). ارزیابی تکانههای پولی و مالی با تأکید بر تعامل ترازنامه نظام بانکی و بخش حقیقی اقتصاد ایران: رویکرد DSGE. فصلنامه نظریههای کاربردی اقتصاد، 3(1)، 1-28.
* شرکت بورس تهران (1395). اطلاعات بازار، قابل دسترس در: http://new.tse.ir/archive.
* فرازمند، حسن، آرمن، سید عزیز، افقه، مرتضی و قرباننژاد، مجتبی (1395)، ارزیابی اثرات اصلاح قیمت انرژی بر اقتصاد کلان ایران: رویکرد الگوهای تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE)، فصلنامه نظریههای کاربردی اقتصاد، 3(2)، 49-76.
* فرزینوش، اسداله، احسانی، محمدعلی و کشاورز، هادی (1394). اصطکاک مالی و نوسانات بازار کار (مطالعه موردی: اقتصاد ایران به عنوان یک اقتصاد باز کوچک)، تحقیقات اقتصادی، 50 (2)، 415-447.
* منظور، داود و تقیپور، انوشیروان (1394). تنظیم یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE) برای اقتصاد باز کوچک صادرکننده نفت؛ مورد مطالعه: ایران، فصلنامه پژوهشها و سیاستهای اقتصادی، 23(75)، 7-44.
* Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In: Taylor, J.B., Woodford, M. (Eds.), 1st edition Handbook of Macroeconomics vol. 1. Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, pp. 1341–1393 (Ch. 21).
* Calvo, G. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. J. Monet. Econ. 12 (3), 383–398.
* Castelnuovo, E., Nisticò, S. (2010). Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGEmodel for the US. J. Econ. Dyn. Control. 34 (9), 1700–1731.
* Christiano, L., Ilut, C., Motto, R., Rostagno, M. (2008). Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles. Working Paper Series No. 995. European Central Bank.
* Christiano, L., Motto, R., Rostango, M. (2010). Financial factors in business cycles. Working Paper Series No. 1192. European Central Bank.
* Cochrane, J.H., 2008. Financial markets and the real economy. In: Mehra, R. (Ed.), Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, pp. 237–325 (Ch. 7).
* De Walque, G., Pierrard, O., Rouabah, A. (2010). Financial (in)stability, supervision and liquidity injections: a dynamic general equilibrium approach. The Economic Journal 120, 1234-1261.
* Gerali, A., Neri, S., Sessa, L., Signoretti, F.M. (2010). Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the Euro area. J. Money Credit Bank. 42 (6), 107–141.
* Hollander, H., Liu, G. (2015). The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking. Economic Modelling 52 (B) 375–389.
* Iacoviello, M. (2005). House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle. Am. Econ. Rev. 95 (3), 739–764.
* Jehle, G. A., Reny, P. J. (2011). Advanced microeconomic theory, 3rd edition. Prentice Hall, Financial Times.
* Kiyotaki, N., Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. Journal of Political Economy 105 (2), 211-248.
* Markovic, B. (2006). Bank capital channels in the monetary transmission mechanism. Working Paper, No. 313. Bank of England.
* Meh, C.A., Moran, K. (2010). The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks. J. Econ. Dyn. Control. 34, 555–576.
* Miao, J., Wang, P., Xu, Z. (2013). A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles. Available at: www.aeaweb.org.
* Mishkin, F., 2011. Monetary policy strategy: lessons from the crisis. NBER Working Paper Series no. 16755.
* Nistico, S. (2012). Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework. Journal of Macroeconomics 34, 126-146.
* Smets, F., Wouters, R. (2007). Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian approach. Am. Econ. Rev. 97 (3), 586–606.
* Taylor, J. B. (2009). Getting off track: How government actions and interventions caused, prolonged, and worsened the financial crisis. Hoover Institution Press, ISBN 0-8179-4971-2.
* Uhlig, H. (2007). Explaining asset prices with external habits and wage rigidities in a DSGE model. Am. Econ. Rev. Am. Econ. Assoc. 97 (2), 239–243.
* Van den Heuvel, S.J. (2008). The welfare cost of banking capital requirements. J. Monet. Econ. 55 (2), 298–320.
* Walsh, C. E. (2010). Monetary theory and policy, 3rd edition. The MIT Press, Cambridge.
* Wei, C. (2010). Inflation and stock prices: no illusion. J. Money Credit Bank. 42, 325–345.
* Woodford, M. (2012). Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound. Jackson Hole Symposium, the Changing Policy Landscape, August 31-September 1, 2012.
_||_