Social mood and behavior of investors; evidence of herd behavior of investors in the religious months
Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities AnalysisSobhan Eskini 1 , Alireza Aghajani 2
1 - Ph.D. student of financial management of Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Ph.D. student of financial engineering, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch
Keywords: Behavioral bias, Herd behavior, Religious months, Social mood,
Abstract :
Studies show religion is effective factor in forming social mood. Therefore, the impact of religion on behavioral bias affected by social mood can be studied. This study is an ex-post facto research that Using observed data tests possibility of herd behavior in religious months, consist of Muharram, Ramadan, and Zul-Hijjah, in Iranian capital market. After studying 1206 days of Daily trade in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1989-1993 (Solar Hijri-Iranian calendar), results show possibility of herd behavior in religious months more than other months of the year. Between religious month, Ramadan has the greatest impact of forming herd behavior. Also, the theories point out market performance and trading volume affect herd behavior. Accordingly, using robustness tests, this study investigates possibility of herd behavior affected by market performance and trading volume. However, there was no certain pattern. These results make contributions to the literature on the effects of social norm studies on markets, herding in stock market, and Islamic finance studies in particular.
* اسلامیبیدگلی، غلامرضا و شهریاری، سارا (1386) "بررسی و آزمون رفتار توده وار سرمایه گذاران با استفاده از انحرافات بازده سهام از بازده کل بازار در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی سال های 1380 تا 1384"، 14، 49، صص 44-25.
* ایزدینیا، ناصر و حاجیاننژاد، امین (1388) "بررسی و آزمون رفتار تودهوار در صنایع منتخب بورس اوراق بهادار تهران"، فصلنامه بورس اوراق بهادار، 2، 7، صص: 132-105
* بدری، احمد؛ عربمازار یزدی و عزیزیان افشین (1393)"اثر وضعیت بازار بر شکلگیری رفتار جمعی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران"، دانش حسابداری، 14، 56، صص: 5-24
* پمپین، میشل (1388)، "دانش مالی رفتاری و مدیریت دارایی، ترجمه احمد بدری، انتشارات کیهان، تهران.
* تهرانی، رضا و بیگینیا، حسین (1391)، "بررسی تأثیر ماه های مذهبی بر بورس اوراق بهادار تهران،" دانش سرمایهگذاری، 1، 3، صص: 26-1
* تیموریمجد، میرمحمدولی (1380)، "مراسم مذهبی، عبادات و مکانهای دینی در بهداشت روان،" اولین همایش بینالمللی نقش دین در بهداشت روان.
* حسینخانی، محمد و یکهفلاح، محمد (1393)، "اثربخشی حضور در مراسم دهه اول محرم بر سطح دینداری عزاداران،" روانشناسی و دین، 7، 4، صص: 54-41
* دورکیم، ایمیل (1383)، "صور بنیانی حیات دینی،" ترجمه باقر پرهام، انشارات مرکز، تهران.
* راعی، رضا و شیرزادی، سعید (1387)، "بیقاعدگیهای تقویمی و غیرتقویمی در بازارهای مالی،" فصلنامه بورس اوراق بهادار، 1، 1، صص: 132-101
* عبدالهی، حمیدرضا (1390)، "عوامل موثر بر وفاق اجتماعی،" پژوهشنامه، 75، صص: 150-139.
* عربمازار یزدی، محمد؛ بدری، احمد و عزیزیان، افشین (1392) آزمون تجربی رفتار جمعی سرمایه گذاران در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، مطالعات تجربی حسابداری مالی، 11، 39، 27-1.
* Akhter A, Sandhu A and Butt S (2015), “Islamic Calendar Effect on Market Risk and Return Evidence from Islamic Countries,” Business & Financial Affairs,4,2, pp:2-5
* Al-Hajieh , Redhead and Rodgers (2011), “Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets”, Research in International Business and Finance 25, 3, PP: 345–356
* Al-Khazali, O (2014) “Revisiting Fast Profit Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns During Ramadan”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 33, PP: 158-170
* Banerjee, A. V. (1992). A Simple Model of Herd Behavior, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3): 797-817.
* Barro, R.J., Mccleary, R.( 2003) “Religion and Economic Growth”. NBER Working Paper No. 9682, Available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w9682.
* Berument.H, Kiymaz.H, (2001), “The day of the week effect on stock market volatility”, journal of economics and finance, 25, 2, PP: 363-380
* Bikhchandani, S Hirshleifer, D and Welch, I (1992) “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades,” Journal of Political Economy, 100, 5, pp. 992-1026
* Blasco. N, Corredor, P and Ferreruela, S (2012), “Market sentiment: a key factor of investors’ imitative behavior,” Accounting & Finance, 52, 3, PP: 663–689
* Chiang, Li and Tan (2010) ” Empirical investigation of herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: Evidence from quintile regression analysis, Global Finance Journal, 21, 1, PP: 111–124.
* Christie and Huang (1995) “Following the Pied Piper: Do Individual Returns Herd around the Market?”, Financial Analysts Journal, 51, 4, PP: 31-37
* Economou. F, Kostakis. A and Philippas, N (2011) Cross-country effects in herding behavior: Evidence from four south European markets, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 21, 3, PP: 443-460
* Frieder. L and Subrahmanyam. A (2004) Nonsecular Regularities in Returns and Volume, Financial Analysts Journal, 60, 4, PP: 29-34
* Gavriilidis, K, Kallinterakis, V and Ferreira, L (2013), “Institutional industry herding: Intentional or spurious?”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 26, PP: 192-214
* Hirshleifer,D and Hong Teoh, S (2003), “Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis”, European Financial Management, 9, 1, PP: 25–66
* Hong. H, Jeffrey D. and Jeremy C (2004),” Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation,” The journal of finance, 59, 1, PP: 137–163
* Hong. H, Jeffrey D. and Jeremy C (2005), “Thy Neighbor's Portfolio: Word-of-Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trades of Money Managers,” The journal of finance, 60, 6, PP: 2801–2824
* Husain, F. 1998. “Seasonality in the Pakistani Equity Market: The Ramadan Effect.” The Pakistan Development Review 1(37) pp: 77-81
* Hwang and Salmon (2004), “Market stress and herding”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 11, 4, PP: 585–616
* Ina Knerr and Pearl, L (2008) “Ketogenic diet: Stoking energy stores and still posing questions”, Experimental Neurology, 211, 1,PP: 11–13.
* Kamstra, J. Kramer, and Maurice D. (2003). "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle ." American Economic Review, 93(1): 324-343.
* Kumar. A, Jeremy. P, Oliver s (2011) “Religious beliefs, gambling attitudes, and financial market outcomes, Journal of Financial Economics, 102, 3, pp: 671–708
* Lakonishok shleifer and vishny (1992)”The impact of institutional trading on stock prices” Journal of Financial Economics, 31, PP: 13-43.
* Luc Renneboog, L and Spaenjers, C (2012) “Religion, economic attitudes, and household finance”, Oxford Economic Papers, 64, pp: 103-127.
* Mouna Jlassi, Kamel Naoui (2015) “Herding behaviour and market dynamic volatility: evidence from the US stock markets”, American Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4, 1, PP: 70-91
* Mustafa K (2011) The Islamic calendar effect on Karachi stock market. Global Business Review 13: 562-574.
* Nofsinger (2002), “Do optimists make the best investors? “Corporate Finance Review, 6, 4, Pages 11-17,
* Olson, K (2006) “A Literature Review of Social Mood,” Journal of Behavioral Finance,7, 4, pp: 193-203
* Pantzalis, C and Ucar, E (2014). “Religious holidays, investor distraction, and earnings announcement effects,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 47, 1, pp: 102-117
* Parker, W and Prechter, R (2005) “Herding: An Interdisciplinary Integrative Review from a Socionomic Perspective,” Available at SSRN:http://ssrn.com/abstract=2009898.
* Prechter, R. (2001) “Unconscious Herding Behavior as the Psychological Basis of Financial Market Trends and Patterns,” Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets , 2, 3, PP: 120-125
* Stulz and Williamson (2003) “Culture, openness, and finance”, Journal of Financial Economics, 70, 3, pp: 313–349
* Saunders, E (1993), “Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather,” The American Economic Review, 83, 5, 1337-1345.
* Yao, Ma and Pang He (2014) Investor herding behaviour of Chinese stock market, International Review of Economics & Finance, 29, PP: 12-29
_||_