Analyzing the Impact of Financial Inclusion on Income Inequality in Developing Oil-Exporting Countries: The Moderating Role of Population Aging
Analyzing the Impact of Financial Inclusion on Income Inequality in Developing Oil-Exporting Countries: The Moderating Role of Population Aging
Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis
Ali Jafarnazar
1
,
Hosein Sharifi Renani
2
*
,
salam monemzamel
3
,
مسعود رمضانی
4
1 - Ph.D Student Department of Economics, Isf.C., Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
2 - Department of Economics,Faculty of Governance, Isf.C., Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran (corresponding author)
3 - Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Wasit University, Wasit, Iraq
4 - Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Isf.C., Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
Keywords: Financial inclusion, Income inequality, Population aging, developing oil-exporting countries.,
Abstract :
Income inequality is one of the most critical socio-economic challenges in developing countries. In this context, financial inclusion has emerged as an effective tool for promoting economic justice and reducing poverty. However, demographic structures—particularly population aging—can significantly influence the direction and magnitude of financial inclusion’s effects. This study aims to analyze the impact of financial inclusion on income inequality in developing oil-exporting countries, with a particular focus on the moderating role of population aging. The study covers a panel of 15 developing oil-exporting countries over the period 2001 to 2023. To estimate the model, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach was employed to address issues of endogeneity and heterogeneity in panel data. The empirical results indicate that financial inclusion has a significant and negative impact on income inequality (coefficient: -0.41), suggesting that improved access to financial services contributes to narrowing income gaps. Additionally, both the elderly population ratio and the old-age dependency ratio exert significant and negative effects on income inequality (with coefficients of -0.54 and -0.31, respectively), implying that in societies with older population structures, income distribution tends to worsen. More importantly, the interaction terms between financial inclusion and aging indices show a significant negative effect on inequality, indicating that in aging societies, the inequality-reducing impact of financial inclusion is amplified. This underscores the importance of designing inclusive financial policies tailored to demographic shifts in developing economies.
اشعربین، مصطفی، خلیلی، فاطمه، و طالبی، نسرین. (1401). بررسی اثر حداقل دستمزد بر توزیع درآمد در کشورهای منتخب توسعه‌یافته و در حال توسعه. مطالعات تطبیقی اقتصاد و توسعه، 5(1)، 33–60.
برخورداری، سجاد و ابریشمی، حمید و ذوالفقاری، مجتبی (1400). تاثیر توسعه مالی بر توسعه انسانی در کشورهای درحال توسعه با تمرکز بر ویژگی های نهادی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی، فصلنامه اقتصاد مالی، دوره: 13، شماره: 48.
بیدختی، سمانه و اسماعیل پور مقدم، هادی و رزمی، سید محمد جواد (1402). اثر شمول مالی بر نابرابری درآمد در کشورهای منتخب درحال توسعه، پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان، دوره 17، شماره 36، ص ص 150-129.
تفتیان، اکرم و میرجلیلی، امیرمحمد (1401). مرور مطالعات در ارتباط با جنسیت, سواد مالی, توانایی مالی و بازنشستگی در کشور های مختلف، سومین همایش ملی مدیریت دانش و کسب وکارهای الکترونیکی با رویکرد اقتصاد مقاومتی.
جباری، مرضیه و علوی راد، عباس (1397). بررسی رابطه پویا میان مصرف انرژی، جمعیت، توسعه مالی و تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی در ایران، چهارمین همایش ملی توسعه پایدار در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک.
جهانیان، محمد، خادمی، سارا، و اکبرزاده، رضا. (1399). آموزش و تأثیر آن بر توزیع درآمد: مطالعه‌ای بر پایه نظریه‌های توسعه انسانی. فصلنامه آموزش و توسعه منابع انسانی، 15(3)، 45–70.
حاتمی سولگانی، بهرام؛ شریفی رنانی، حسین؛ دایی کریم‌زاده، سعید. (۱۴۰۳). تحلیل اثرات توسعه مالی و سیاست پولی بر رشد اقتصادی از طریق کانال وام‌دهی بانکی. دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار، ۱۷(۶۴)، 199–184.
خاتمی، نیلوفر؛ شریفی رنانی، حسین؛ حافظی، بهار. (۱۴۰۳). تأثیرات آستانهای حکمرانی خوب در رابطه هزینه‌های عمومی، شمول مالی و رشد اقتصادی در منتخبی از کشورهای منطقه منا. دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار، ۱۷(۶۱)، 130–112.
داودی، پرویز و سیزی خوشنامی، حسن (1401). اثر آستانهای توسعه مالی بر نابرابری درآمد در ایران؛ مقایسه بخش بانکی و بازار سهام، پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی، دوره 21، شماره 83، ص ص 163-147.
سردار شهرکی، غلامرضا، جهان‌دیده، ناصر، و امینی، نسرین. (1398). تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر توزیع درآمد در مناطق روستایی ایران با استفاده از الگوی VECM. مطالعات اقتصاد کشاورزی، 11(4)، 145–174.
معبودی، وحید، دهقانی، لیلا، و رجبی، علی. (1403). مالی‌سازی، رشد اقتصادی و توزیع درآمد در ایران: یک تحلیل موجک و رویکرد میداس. پژوهش‌های اقتصاد کلان، 9(1)، 21–50.
Abd Rahim Md Jamil a, Siong Hook Law a b, M.S. Khair-Afham a, Irwan Trinugroho. 2024. Financial inclusion and income inequality in developing countries: The role of aging populations, Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 67, Part A, January 2024, 102110.
Abd Rahman, N.H., Ismail, S., Ridzuan, A.R., 2020. Ageing population and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Int. J. Acad. Res. Bus. Soc. Sci. 10 (5) https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v10-i5/7234.
Acemoglu, D., Restrepo, P., 2017. Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. Am. Econ. Rev. 107 (5), 174–179. https://doi. org/10.1257/aer.p20171101.
Agyemang-Badu, A.A., Agyei, K., Kwaku, E., 2018. Financial inclusion, poverty and income inequality: evidence from Africa. Spirit. Int. J. Poverty Stud. 2 (2), 1–38.〈https://ssrn.com/abstract=3167200.
Alvarez-Gamboa, J., Cabrera-Barona, P., J´acome-Estrella, H., 2021. Financial inclusion and multidimensional poverty in Ecuador: A spatial approach. World Dev.
Angrisani, M., Lee, J., 2019. Cognitive decline and household financial decisions at older ages. J. Econ. Ageing 13, 86–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jeoa.2018.03.003.
Banerjee, A.V., Newman, A.F., 1993. Occupational choice and the process of development. J. Political Econ. 101 (2), 274–298. https://doi.org/10.1086/261876.
Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Levine, R., 2007. Finance, inequality and the poor. J. Econ. Growth 12 (1), 27–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-007-9010-6.
Chen, X., Huang, B., Li, S., 2017. Population Aging and Inequality: Evidence from the People’s Republic of China. ADBI Working Paper. Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, p. 794.
Dao, N.D., 2020. Does the microcredit intervention change the life of the low- and middle-income households in rural Vietnam? Evidence from panel data. World Dev.
Devriendt, W., Heylen, F., 2020. Macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic change in an open economy-The case of Belgium. J. Demogr. Econ. 86 (1), 87–124. https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.14.
Dimova, R., Adebowale, O., 2018. Does access to formal finance matter for welfare and inequality? Micro level evidence from Nigeria. J. Dev. Stud. 54 (9), 1534–1550. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2017.1371293.
Dolls, M., Doorley, K., Paulus, A., Schneider, H., Sommer, E., 2019. Demographic change and the European income distribution. J. Econ. Inequal. 17 (3), 337–357. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-019-09411-z.
Galor, O., Zeira, J., 1993. Income distribution and macroeconomics. Rev. Econ. Stud. 60 (1), 35–52. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297811.
Grafeneder-Weissteiner, T., Prettner, K., Südekum, J., 2020. Three pillars of urbanization: migration, aging, and growth. De. Econ. 168 (2), 259–278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10645-020-09356-z.
Greenwood, J., Jovanovic, B., 1990. Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. J. Polit. Econ. 98 (5), 1076–1107. https://doi.org/10.1086/261720.
Guti´errez-Romero, R., Ahamed, M., 2021. COVID-19 response needs to broaden financial inclusion to curb the rise in poverty. World Dev. 138, 105229 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105229.
Gyasi, R.M., Frimpong, S., Lamptey, R.B., Amoako, G.K., Asiki, G., Adam, A.M., 2022. Associations of financial inclusion with physical activity participation in later life. Heliyon 8 (7), e09901. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09901.
Jeleta Kebede, Athula Naranpanawa, Saroja Selvanathan. 2023. Financial inclusion and income inequality nexus: A case of Africa, Economic Analysis and Policy, Volume 77, March 2023, Pages 539-557.
Klapper, L., Hess, J., 2019. The Role of Digital Financial Inclusion in Preparing for Older Age and Retirement. World Bank.
Kling, G., Pesqu´e-Cela, V., Tian, L., Luo, D., 2020. A theory of financial inclusion and income inequality. Eur. J. Financ. 28 (1), 137–157. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 1351847X.2020.1792960.
Law, S.H., Tan, H.B., Azman-Saini, W.N.W., 2014. Financial development and income inequality at different levels of institutional quality. Emerg. Mark. Financ. Trade, 50, 21–33. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496×, 5001S102.
Lyons, A.C., Grable, J.E., Joo, S.H., 2018. A cross-country analysis of population aging and financial security. J. Econ. Ageing 12, 96–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jeoa.2018.03.001.
Muhammad Raees Shaik a, Soo Khoon Goh a, Koi Nyen Wong b, Chee Hong Law. 2023. Does population aging coexist with income inequality in the long run? Evidence from selected Asia-Pacific countries, Economic Systems, Available online 21 September 2023, 101149.
Mamun, S.A.K., Rahman, M.M., Khanam, R., 2020. The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model. Econ. Anal. Policy 66, 14–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.02.001.
Modigliani, F., Brumberg, R., 1954. Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. Post Keynesian Economics. Rutgers University Press. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315016849. Angrisani
Neaime, S., Gaysset, I., 2018. Financial inclusion and stability in MENA: evidence from poverty and inequality. Financ. Res. Lett. 24, 230–237. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.frl.2017.09.007.
Omar, M.A., Inaba, K., 2020. Does financial inclusion reduce poverty and income inequality in developing countries? A panel data analysis. J. Econ. Struct. 9 (1) https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-00214-4.
Pascual-Saez, M., Cantarero-Prieto, D., Pires Manso, J.R., 2020. Does population ageing affect savings in Europe? J. Policy Model. 42 (2), 291–306. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.07.009.
Relwendé Sawadogo a, Gervasio Semedo. 2021. Financial inclusion, income inequality, and institutions in sub-Saharan Africa: Identifying cross-country inequality regimes, International Economics, Volume 167, October 2021, Pages 15-28.
Soumtang Bime Valentine a, Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou Itchoko Motande. 2024. Financial Access and Income Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Ethnic Fragmentation Give New Evidence?, Economic Systems, Available online 24 February 2024, 101200.
Shin, I., 2018. Could pension system make us happier? Cogent Econ. Financ. 6 (1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1452342.
Tan, H.B., Law, S.H., 2012. Nonlinear dynamics of the finance-inequality nexus in developing countries. J. Econ. Inequal. 10 (4), 551–563. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10888-011-9174-3.
Thi Bui, M., Oanh Luong, T.N., 2023. Financial inclusion for the elderly in Thailand and the role of information communication technology. Borsa Istanb. Rev. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2023.02.003.
Tita, A.F., Aziakpono, M.J., 2017. The effects of financial inclusion on welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from disaggregated data. Afr. Rev. Econ. Financ. 9 (2), 30–65.
Wenjing Huang a, Xinyu Gu b, Linting Lin c, Majed Alharthi d, Muhammad Usman. 2023. Do financial inclusion and income inequality matter for human capital? Evidence from sub-Saharan economies, Borsa Istanbul Review, Volume 23, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 22-33.
Wang, C., Wan, G., Luo, Z., Zhang, X., 2017. Aging and inequality: the perspective of labor income share. ADBI Working Paper. Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, p. 764.
Xianming Sun a b, Shiyi Xiao a, Ganlin Wang a, Xiaohang Ren. 2024. Innovation, financial permeation, and income inequality: From a dynamic perspective in China, Journal of Management Science and Engineering, Available online 27 February 2024.
Yip, P.S.F., Wong, J.H.K., Li, B.Y.G., Zhang, Y., Kwok, C.L., Chen, M.N., 2017. Assessing the impact of population dynamics on poverty measures: a decomposition analysis. Soc. Indic. Res. 134 (2), 531–545. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1434-y.
Zhu, J., Liang, C., Lucas, J., Cheng, W., Zhao, Z., 2020. The influence of income and social capital on the subjective well-being of elderly Chinese people, based on a panel survey. Sustainability 12 (11), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114786.