The share of renewable energies in the production of electrical energy in Iran in the horizon of 1430(2050)
Subject Areas : Renewable Energy
Babak Kateb
1
,
مجید عباس پور
2
*
,
Zahra Abedi
3
1 - Phd student in Environmental Management- Environmental Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Professor, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. *(Corresponding Author)
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Keywords: electrical energy planning, sustainable energy, Iran's electricity production portfolio.,
Abstract :
Background and Objective: The increasing need for energy, especially electricity, on the one hand, and the challenges of sustainable energy on the other hand, are among the most important issues facing countries. One of the methods of determining the number of different technologies in electricity production at the national and regional levels in the world is one of the energy planning models. Among the most important and popular energy planning models, we can mention MARKAL, LEAP, MESSAGE, WASP, etc. models. The use of these well-known models for planning electricity production at different levels brings the optimal combination of electricity production technologies and provides the electric energy portfolio in the best possible way according to economic, social, environmental, etc. considerations. The purpose of this study is to determine the contribution of different power plants in the long-term period until 1430(2050), emphasizing renewable energy in the country's electricity production portfolio.
Material and Methodology: This study is applied in terms of purpose and documentary in terms of collecting data and information. To achieve the purpose of the study, energy planning in Iran was carried out with the time horizon of 1430(2050) using the MESSAGE model. In this study, energy planning has been done in the form of three, reference scenarios, energy sustainability and high fuel price.
Findings: Examining the outputs of the model in the form of 3 scenarios and 5 sections including: 1) the process of optimal development of power plant capacity, 2) the optimal process of electricity production, 3) the contribution of clean technologies in electricity production, 4) the amount of fuel consumption and 5) the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. It indicates the better condition of the indicators in the sustainability scenario. According to the findings of this study, the optimal nominal capacity of renewable power plants (wind, biomass and photovoltaic) at the end of 1430(2050) will be as follows:
- The share of wind power plants in the three reference scenarios, energy sustainability and high fuel price will be about 14, 15.78 and 13.5 percent, respectively.
- The share of biomass power plants in the three reference scenarios, energy sustainability and high fuel price will be about 0.3, 3.95 and 3.6 percent, respectively.
- The share of photovoltaic power plants in the three reference scenarios, energy sustainability and high fuel price will be about 0.82, 6.76 and 5.87%, respectively.
Discussion and Conclusion: The use of electric energy supply planning models to predict the optimal combination of supply sources in the future requires real and up-to-date inputs and assumptions, as well as comprehensive planning and its effective implementation. The results of this study indicate that based on the sustainability scenario in the time horizon of 1430(2050), gas, nuclear, wind, biomass, photovoltaic, combined cycle, diesel, hydroelectric, etc. plants have priority, and the share of renewable power plants is 31.3% matures.
1. United Ntions (UN). 2015. PARIS AGREEMENT.
2. International Energy Agency (IEA). 2022. World Energy Outlook 2022. See information in: https://www.iea.org
3. International Energy Agency (IEA). 2023. World Energy Outlook 2023. See information in: https://www.iea.org
4. Ministry of Energy of Iran. 2022. Overview of 33 years of the country's energy (1367-99). Deputy of Electricity and Energy Affairs, Planning and Macroeconomics of Electricity and Energy. (In Persian)
5. Heydari, K. 2015. Strategic Document of Comprehensive Energy Planning of the Country. Niro Research Institute, Tavanir Company. (In Persian)
6. Shakuri Ganjavi, H., Kazemi, A., Abdulapour, S., Guldansaz, S. 2019. Economic, social and environmental evaluation of electricity production from renewable and gas technologies. Iranian Energy Quarterly, Volume 23, No. 3, Fall 2019, pp. 33-70. (In Persian)
7. Khodaparast Pirsaraei, Y. 2019. Strategies for diversifying the country's energy portfolio through the development of solar power plants. Tadbir Ekhtaz Magazine, Volume 8, Number 10, December 2019, pp. 15-24. (In Persian)
8. Mousaviyan Hejazi, S., Shakuri Ganjavi, H. 2015. The share of new energies in the energy portfolio and strategies to increase its share in order to achieve a resilient economy. Defense Economics Quarterly, year 1, number 1, autumn 2015, pp. 91 -135. (In Persian)
9. Mohammadi Shahiordi, S., Mirghfouri, S., Naser Sadrabadi, A. 2022. Designing a comprehensive model of the regional portfolio of renewable energies in Iran with a focus on dry areas. Khosh Bom Scientific Journal, Volume 12, Number 1, Spring and the summer of 1401, pp. 171-187. (In Persian)
10. Shaheswari, E., Yousefi, H., Shahorn, E. 2017. The share of solar energy in the world's energy basket in 2030. Renewable and New Energy Quarterly, Year 5, Number 2, Winter 2017, pp. 116- 121. (In Persian)
11. Manzoor, D., Rahimi, A. 2014. Prioritization of production of power plants in Iran using multi-indicator decision-making models. Journal of Energy Economics of Iran, Year 4, Number 14, Spring 2014, pp. 191-215. (In Persian)
12. Sadeghi, Z., Rezaei Jafari, M., Ghasminejad, A. 2019. Investigation of renewable power plants using hierarchical analysis, TOPSIS and VIKOR. Environmental Sciences and Technologies, Volume 22, Number 8., pp. 43-58. (In Persian)
13. Manzoor, D., Fermad, M., Arianpour, V., Shafiei, E. 2013. Evaluation of the optimal combination of power plants in the country in terms of environmental costs. Environmental Science, Volume 40, Number 2, Summer 2013, pp. 415-430. (In Persian)
14. Asgharizadeh, E., Mehrgan, M., Shakuri, H., Modares Yazdi, M., Taghizadeh Yazdi, M. 2016. Mathematical model for developing the capacity of power plants considering distributed production units and with the aim of carbon dioxide control. Industrial Management, Volume 9, Number 4, Winter 2016, pp. 587-608. (In Persian)
15. Jangavar, H., Noorollahi, Y., Yousefi, H. 2018. Investigation of the feasibility of achieving the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the production of electricity from renewable sources in Iran. Renewable and New Energy Quarterly, year 6, no. 2, Winter 2018, pp. 62-70. (In Persian)
16. Aryanpur, V., Atabaki, M., Marzband, M., Siani, P. 2019. An over view of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, Vol. 112, September 2019, PP. 58-74.
17. Muhammad Amir, R., Khatri, K. L., Rafique, K., Shahid, M., Khoso, F., Waseer, T. 2022. Long term optimal energy planning and policy formulation for Pakistan. International Energy Journal, Vol. 22, June 2022, PP. 123-134.
18. Gebremeskel, D. H., Ahlgren, E. O., Beyene, G. B. 2023. Long-term electricity supply modelling in the context of developing countries: The OSeMOSYS-LEAP soft-linking approach for Ethiopia. Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol. 45, January 2023, 101045.
19. Das, A., Saini, V., Parikh, K., Parikh, J., Ghosh, P., Tot, M. 2023. Pathways to net zero emissions for the Indian power sector. Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol. 45, January 2023, 101042.
20. Otsuki, T., Komiyama, R., Fujii, Y., Nakamura, H. 2023. Temporally detailed modelling and analysis of global net zero energy systems focusing on variable renewable energy. Energy and Climate Change, Vol. 4, December 2023, 100108.
21. Kong, L., Tan, X., Gu, B., Yan, H. 2023. Significance of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 on China’s energy transition pathway: A multi-model comparison analysis. Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol. 14, Issue 1, February 2023, PP. 32-42.