Impact‏ of‏ Future‏ Climate‏ Change‏ on‏ Precipitation‏ and‏ Temperature‏ and‏ Determining‏ The‏ Uncertainty‏ of‏ A1B,‏ A2‏ and‏ B1‏ Climate‏ Scenarios‏ in‏ Their‏ Perdiction;‏ Case‏ Study:‏ Urmia‏ Lake

Subject Areas : environmental management

Elham Ebrahimi ^{1 *} , Mahdi Zarghami ² , Mohammadreza Shiri ³

1 - Assistant Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
3 - Associate Professor, Research Institute, Breeding and Seed Preparation, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Karaj, Iran

Received: 2025-03-12 Accepted : 2025-04-20 Published : 2025-11-17

Keywords: Climate‏ Change, ‏ Uncertainty, ‏ Urmia‏ Lake, ‏ Temperature, ‏ Precipitation.,

Abstract :

Background‏ and‏ Purpose:‏ The‏ present‏ and‏ future‏ negative‏ impact‏ of‏ climate‏ change‏ on‏ world‏ water‏ resources,‏ has‏ became‏ clear‏ and‏ should‏ be‏ considered‏ in‏ the‏ global‏ and‏ local‏ levels‏ of‏ water‏ resources‏ management.‏ In‏ this‏ regard,‏ in‏ order‏ to‏ using‏ general‏ circulation‏ models‏ in‏ smaller‏ place,‏ downscaling‏ was‏ done‏ with‏ LARS-WG‏ model,‏ however‏ downscaling‏ increases‏ uncertainty.‏ Thus,‏ evaluating‏ the‏ uncertainty‏ of‏ climate‏ change‏ impacts‏ on‏ water‏ resources‏ management‏ is‏ essential.‏

Method:‏ In‏ this‏ study,‏ the‏ output‏ of‏ the‏ general‏ circulation‏ models‏ under‏ A1B,‏ A2‏ and‏ B1scenarios‏ were‏ downscaled‏ using‏ LARS-WG‏ model‏ and‏ output‏ uncertainties‏ in‏ prediction‏ of‏ temperature‏ and‏ precipitation‏ parameters‏ in‏ 2030‏ horizon‏ in‏ 8‏ synoptic‏ stations‏ around‏ Urmia‏ lake‏ basin‏ were‏ assessed.‏

Findings:‏ Due‏ to‏ the‏ results‏ the‏ temperature‏ maintains‏ its‏ increasing‏ trend‏ in‏ the‏ period‏ 2011-2030‏ and‏ would‏ rise‏ about‏ 0.68‏ °C‏ in‏ 2011-2030.‏ Anticipated‏ precipitation‏ change‏ will‏ be‏ between‏ -4.08‏ percent‏ (1.1‏ mm‏ decrease)‏ in‏ May‏ and‏ 4.79‏ percent‏ (1.36‏ mm‏ increase)‏ in‏ November‏ from‏ 2011‏ to‏ 2030.‏ Due‏ to‏ SPSS‏ results‏ in‏ March,‏ the‏ probability‏ of‏ more‏ than‏ 37‏ mm‏ precipitation‏ was‏ 75‏ percent‏ and‏ the‏ probability‏ of‏ precipitation‏ equal‏ to‏ 50‏ mm,‏ was‏ 50‏ percent.‏ Also‏ the‏ maximum‏ probability‏ of‏ precipitation‏ greater‏ than‏ 65‏ mm,‏ was‏ 25‏ percent.

Discussion‏ and‏ Counclusion:‏ According‏ to‏ using‏ the‏ results‏ of‏ all‏ 15‏ models,‏ despite‏ the‏ difference‏ among‏ the‏ minimum‏ and‏ maximum‏ temperature‏ in‏ different‏ scenarios,‏ temperature‏ trends‏ in‏ three‏ scenarios‏ on‏ the‏ horizon‏ of‏ 2030‏ are‏ almost‏ identical.‏ Due‏ to‏ the‏ results‏ of‏ three‏ emission‏ scenarios,‏ the‏ maximum‏ temperature‏ rise‏ will‏ occur‏ in‏ summer.‏ Due‏ to‏ the‏ temperature‏ rise‏ in‏ the‏ summer‏ months,‏ particularly‏ August,‏ more‏ attention‏ to‏ the‏ evaporation‏ of‏ lake‏ water‏ as‏ the‏ only‏ output‏ is‏ very‏ crucial.

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