Impacts of Real Exchange Rate and its Uncertainty on Private Investment in Agricultural Sector

Subject Areas : Agricultural Economics Research

H. Rafiee ^{1 *} , S. R. Khormizi ² , R. Mahmoudgordi ^{3 *} , O. Zamani ⁴ , S. A. Mortazavi ⁵ , H. Naderi ⁶

1 - دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران
2 - دانشجوی دکترا و استادیار تخصصی گروه علوم دامی دانشگاه تهران
3 - دانشجوی دکترا ی اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
4 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
5 - استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
6 - کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

Received: 2015-12-18 Accepted : 2015-12-18 Published : 2011-12-22

Keywords: Iran, real exchange rate, agriculture sector, Private investment,

Abstract :

This paper aims to assess the impacts of factors affecting private investment in agriculture with emphasis on the real exchange rate and its uncertainty by using time series data for1967-2006 period. First, by using Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedactisity (GARCH) model, Exchange rate uncertainty was estimated and then by using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method the variables were estimated. The results showed that real exchange rate and its uncertainty, both in the long and short run, had negative impact on investment in agriculture. In addition, findings of the study suggest that increase in agricultural credit and prices would encourage private investment in the agricultural sector  

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