Effects of climate change on hydrological and economic conditions of Bushkan plain farmers

Subject Areas : Agricultural Economics Research

Hamide Daneshgar ¹ , Mehrdad Bagheri ² , Mostafa Mardani Najafabadi ³ , Fatemeh Alijani ⁴ , Gholamreza yavari ⁵

1 - Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor Uuniversity, Tehran Iran.
2 - Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics; Payam Noor Uuniversity; Tehran Iran.
3 - Assistance Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran.
4 - Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics; Payam Noor Uuniversity; Tehran Iran.
5 - Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor University; Tehran Iran.

Received: 2019-07-20 Accepted : 2020-01-29 Published : 2021-07-23

Keywords: Positive Mathematical Programming, Cropping Pattern, WEAP Model, LARS-WG Model, Bushehr Province,

Abstract :

Bushkan is one of the most important plains of Bushehr province which is considered as the agricultural pole of this province. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of Bushkan plain. Accordingly, in this study, the WEAP model and its agro-economic model, MABIA, have been used to study the hydrological status of the plain. Finally, using the positive mathematical programming (PMP), the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of the Bushkan plain has been studied. The results show that by applying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the water availability of different regions of Bushkan Plain during the 2018-2050 period is reduced by an average of 6 and 12 percent. By applying these changes to the positive mathematical programming, it was found that the total area under the cultivation of six areas is greatly reduced. According to this fallow agricultural lands is suggested as an appropriate solution to prevent long-term damage to agricultural production in the region.

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