Fuzzy TOPSIS Evaluation of Economic Risks for Oil and Gas Projects

Subject Areas : Industrial Management

Farzad Firouzi Jahantigh ¹ (Department of Industrial Engineering, Sistan And Balouchestan University)
Gholamreza Esmaeilian ² (Department of Industrial Engineering, Payam Nour University)
Mohammad Iman Hezavehi ³ (Department of Industrial Engineering, Payam Nour University)

Received: 2015-11-25 Accepted : 2018-01-18 Published : 2016-08-25

Keywords:

Abstract :

Recession in developing countries forces authorities to set policies to mitigate financial risks. These types of risks comprise of inflation, energy, cash flow, finance, money in project perspective. The main goal of this research is to identify some significant financial risks of EPC projects in petroleum and gas industry and to evaluate and prioritize based on the well-known fuzzy TOPSIS model. A case study in a refinery project with the national domain is taken into account. Importance in given projects emerges from heavy investment, the capacity of refineries in GDP2 and the role of petroleum in country development. In this research first, risks are categorized and extracted by interviewing with the experts at different levels of authority, then at second stage risk prioritization according to the proposed model is done. Finally, our model is compared to the other models in the literature to depict its improvement. 

References:

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1. mer, M., Jiayin, P., & Zayed, T. (2008). Assessing risk and uncertainty inherent in chines highway projects using AHP. International Journal of Project Management, 26, 11.


2. Azar, A., & Faraji, M. (2009). Fuzzy Management Science. Tehran: Amir-Kabir.


3. Ebrahimnejad, S., Mousavi, S. M., & Seyrafianpour, H. (2010). Risk identification and assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: A fuzzy multi attribute decision making model. Expert Systems with Applications2088, 37, 12.


4. Krane, H. s. p., Asbjorn, R., & Nils, O. (2010). Categorizing Risks in Seven Large Project Which Risks Do the Projects Focus On? Project Management Journal.


5. Lee, A. H., Chen, W., & Chang, C. (2008). A Fuzzy AHP and BSC Approach for Evaluating Performance of IT Department in the Manufacturing Industry in Taiwan. Expert Systems with Applications2088, 34(1), 12.


6. Nieto- Morote, A., & Ruz-Vila, F. (2010). A fuzzy approach to construction 3 project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management.


7. Project Management Institute (2008). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge: (PMBOK Guide),    4th Edition, Maryland.


8. Sabzeparvar, M. (2012). Project Control. Tehran: Termeh.


9. Sun, Y., Huang, R., Chen, D., & Li, H. n. (2008). Fuzzy Set Based Risk Evaluation Model for RealEstate Projects. Tsinghua Sciene and Technology, 13, 7.


10. Wang, J., & Sun, Y. (2012). The Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets on Evaluation of Risks in Projects of Energy Management Contract.


11. Yoon, K., & Hwang, C. L. (1985). Manufacturing plant location analysis by multiple attribute decision making: Part II, Multi-plant strategy and plant relocation. International Journal of Production Research, 23(2), 9.


12. Zegordi, S. H., Rezaee, & NikNazari. (2012). Power Plant Project Risk Assessment Using a Fuzzy-ANP and Fuz.