Investigate and analyzing the effects of oil price shocks on industry and mine sector in Iran (Vector auto regression application)

Subject Areas : Industrial Management

kamran  kasraei ¹ (Department of economics, faculty of Humanity, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch)
Majid  Sameti ² (Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan( khorasgan) Branch, Isfahan, Iran)
Homayoun  Ranjbar ³ (Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan( khorasgan) Branch, Isfahan, Iran)
Sara  Ghobadi ⁴ (Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan( khorasgan) Branch, Isfahan, Iran)

Received: 2018-12-31 Accepted : 2019-02-25 Published : 2019-01-21

Keywords: vector auto regression, Resource Curse, Dutch disease, Iran, oil price shocks,

Abstract :

In recent decades, there are many bold oil price volatilities in markets and most of economists has propose oil price severe variations as the main reason of macroeconomic volatilities in both oil export and import countries, such as Iran. Because of oil rule in Iran’s economic, analyzing the effects of oil market shocks on macroeconomic indicators is very important.So, in this paper we use Vector auto regression model to investigate time- variant impulse functionsfor industry and mine value added growth, informal exchange rate, inflation, real consumption expenditures of government, real import growth and real oil revenues growth on oil revenues shocks for 1988- 2015 period. The results show that, there is a linear effectiveness of positive oil revenues shocks on macroeconomic variables.The results show that, there is a linear effectiveness of positive oil revenues shocks on macroeconomic variables.The results show that, there is a linear effectiveness of positive oil revenues shocks on macroeconomic variables.

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