On the Effect of Rainfall Variations on Economic Variables: The Application of General Equilibrium Model
Subject Areas : Decision-making
زینب
معین الدینی
1
(دانشگاه زابل)
حمید
محمدی
2
(دانشگاه زابل)
حسین
محرابی بشرآبادی
3
(شهید باهنر کرمان)
Keywords: agricultural sector, rainfall, general equilibrium model, economics variables,
Abstract :
The economy of Iran is dependent on many variables thatplay a role in its growth and development. On the other hand, rainfall is one of the important factors of climate changethat has affected economic strategic programs including thoseof the agricultural sector. Rainfall variations impact manyeconomic variables, some of which are explored here. Theaim of this study was to evaluate rainfall shocks on some economicvariables using a general equilibrium model thatincluded the best scenario representing the highest rainfall,the worst scenario representing the lowest rainfall, and normalscenario considering average rainfall. To check the effect ofthese changes on the agricultural sector, a set of commoditiesproduced by this section is considered separately, and othersections are considered in general. The results showed thatthe production of these commodities has been increased byabout 14% in the best rainfall scenario. All commodities havebeen faced with reduced consumption from 0.3% to 10.3% inthe worst rainfall scenario; this was the greatest loss ofproducts related to the agricultural commodities. Rainfall increasedthe price of all commodities by 0.25-28.7%, exceptfor industry. Both private and public investments wereinfluenced by rainfall change.
Ali, S. (2012). Climate change and economic growth In a Rain-fed Economy: How much does rainfall variability cost Ethiopia? Econometric & Statistical Methods, 46, 30-68.
Alijani, F., Karbasi, A.R. & Mozafari Mosanan, M. (2011). The effect of temperature and rainfall on yield of winter wheat in Iran. Economics and Development, 76, 47-23.
Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Koubi, V. (2012) Environmental changes and violent conflict. Environment Research Letters, 7, 560-601.
Fallah Shojaee, M., Mazlom, S., & Sadeghi Mahonak, A.R. (2012). The effect of climate change on agriculture and food security. Second Seminar on Food Security, 17-18 October (50-68), Savadkuh, Azad University Branch of Savadkuh.
Cabral, F.J. (2014). Rainfall and economic growth and poverty: Evidence from Senegal and Burkina Faso. African Growth and Development Policy, 8(3), 1-34.
Henseler, M., Wirsig, A., Herrmann, S.T., and Krimlyand Dabbert, S. (2009). Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach. Agricultural Systems, 100, 31-42.
Lofgren, H. (2003). Exercise in general equilibrium modeling using GAMS. International Food Policy Research Istitute, Washengton DC, 18, 120-130.
Sassi, M., & Cardaci, A. (2013). Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model. Food Policy, 43, 321–331.
Sultana, H., Ali, N., Iqbal, M.M., & Khan, A. M. (2009). Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 94, 123-142.
Thomas, O., Ochuodho, V., Lantz, A., & Olale, E. (2016). Economic impacts of climate change considering individual, additive, and simultaneous changes in forest and agriculture sectors in Canada: A dynamic, multi-regional CGE model analysis. Forest Policy and Economics, 63, 43-51.