Studying and investigating the development of the urban area using the combination of cellular automata and fuzzy system in the spatial information system (Study area: Shiraz city)
Subject Areas :
mohammad ebrahim afifi
1
*
,
vahid sohrabi
2
1 - Assistant Professor of Islamic Azad University, Larestan branch
2 - Geography and urban planning, Islamic Azad University of Larestan, Larestan, Iran
Keywords: Urban area development, cellular automata, fuzzy system, Shiraz,
Abstract :
Introduction: Today, the rapid growth of the world's cities, especially in developing countries, has created many problems in the environmental, economic, social, cultural, etc. fields. For this reason, the position of modeling and predicting land use changes in the future has become more important for urban and environmental management and related officials and researchers. Methodology: The purpose and innovation of this research is to use the integrated cellular automata (CA) model, fuzzy inference and ordered weighted average (OWA) method based on the spatial information system and provide a simple yet powerful model for modeling and forecasting urban development. The use of fuzzy methods in the proposed model of this research is used in order to cover the weaknesses of cellular automata, and various stages of the CA model, including transfer rules, are expressed in a fuzzy form. Also, the OWA method produces different scenarios for different conditions to model the uncertainty in natural phenomena. In this regard, the model consists of four main parts of physical fitness, access level, neighborhood effect and overall fitness calculation. In two parts - physical fit and access level, by defining the fuzzy system and using the required data, maps related to each part are prepared. However, to calculate the neighborhood effect, two methods of enrichment factor and the combined method of enrichment factor with OWA are used Results: The results of modeling with satellite images and forming the error matrix, overall accuracy and compatibility index for the Majority OWA method were calculated as 0.9781 and 0.449 respectively, which is higher accuracy than the other four methods. And for the second seven-year period using the evaluation results, it was observed that the Majority OWA method has the highest overall accuracy and compatibility index of 0.99 and 0.993, respectively, in the correct estimation of urban development compared to other methods.