Prediction of Urban Construction Changes Using Satellite Images Based on CA-MARKOV Models (case study: Sari)

Subject Areas :

Sahab  Bidgoli Kashani ¹ (Department of Engineering and Construction Management, Sari Branch, Islamic Azad university, Sari, Iran.)
Mehran  Fadavi ² (Department of Civil Engineering, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad university, Gorgan, Iran)
Valiollah  Azizifar ³ (Assistant Professor, Dep. of Environmental Science, Ghaemshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ghaemshahr, Iran)

Received: 2023-08-10 Accepted : 2023-09-22 Published : 2023-09-22

Keywords: Change detection, remote sensing, urban construction, Change Prediction and Simulation, Cellular Automata(CA) Markov Model,

Abstract :

Along with the ever-increasing urban population, the amount of construction in the city space has been developed. The development of construction in the horizontal space and regardless of the existing restrictions has led to environmental, economic and legal problems for the citizens. Achieving the amount, intensity and direction of construction development from the past to the present and predicting the construction situation in the future is the first step towards the scientific and practical management of the physical development of urban construction, planning and providing suitable solutions in order to create a balance between allocation Spatial-spatial construction and all kinds of legal, economic and environmental considerations. Data and information extracted from satellite images, while showing the historical changes of urban construction, are used as the main, necessary and necessary input data for models to predict its future state. In this research, satellite images of TM, ETM+ and OLI sensors of Landsat satellite were used in the time periods of 1997-2007 and 2007-2017 related to the city of Sari. After performing geometrical corrections, city area maps were prepared. Then, by using the effective parameters in urban construction changes, using the Cellular Automata(CA) Markov Model, the accuracy of the simulations was checked. Finally, for validation, the simulated maps and the ground reality map were matched with each other. The simulation of the construction development process in 2027 using the CA-Markov model showed that if the existing management regulations continue, this area will decrease from 4617.90 hectares in 2017 to 4357.44 hectares in 2027. But the examination of change maps and stability maps showed that new areas will be under construction between 2017 and 2027, which were mainly used for agriculture and barren land.