Simulating and predicting the effects of climate change using some new scenarios of SSP and CMIP6 models on rainfall changes in Ardabil County
Subject Areas :
Bromand Salahi
1
(Professor of climatology, Faculty of Social Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.)
Mahnaz Saber
2
(, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran)
Fatemeh Vatanparast Ghaleh Juq
3
(Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran)
Keywords: Precipitation, Forecast, Ardabil, CanESM5, SSP,
Abstract :
In this research, the annual rainfall changes of Ardabil City have been modeled and analyzed based on the downscaling of the output of some CMIP6 models under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the SDSM6.1 software. For this purpose, the daily precipitation of the Ardabil synoptic station from 1979 to 2014 was considered as observational data, and its changes were analyzed for the next decades until 2043. The downscaled results in the base period under CanESM5 and NorESM2-MM general circulation models showed relatively good performance in estimating the monthly precipitation of Ardabil station. The results showed that in March, April, and May, there is an underestimation, in July there is an overestimation and in the other months there is a relatively good performance with the observational data. The annual average precipitation of the future period based on the output of the CanESM5 model under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios was calculated as 245 and 243 mm respectively, which shows a decrease of about 38 and 40 mm compared to the average of the historical period. The results of the Ardabil rainfall simulation with the CanESM5 model showed that on a monthly scale, the rainfall in the next 20 years in April and May under the SSP1-2.6 scenario is between 14 and 15 mm and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario between 16 and 17 mm will decrease and in July to September and December, it will increase by at least 5 mm compared to the base period.