Evaluating the efficiency of climate change models in simulating temperature and precipitation components (Case study of Karganrood watershed)

Subject Areas :

Mohammad Reza Sheykh Rabiee ¹ , Hamid Reza Peyrowan ² , Peyman Daneshkar Arasteh ³ , Mehry Akbary ⁴ , Baharak Motamedvaziri ⁵

1 - Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Department of water and soil conservation, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran
3 - Water Science and Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
4 - Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
5 - Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2021-07-26 Accepted : 2021-08-31 Published : 2022-04-21

Keywords: Climate Change, MIROC, NoerESM1-M, HadGEM2-ES, CCT, Fifth IPCC Report,

Abstract :

Due to the time consuming and uneconomical use of dynamic models, the use of downscaling climatic exponential methods has increased. In this study, the results of HadGEM2-ES, MIROC and NoerESM1-M climatic models that were calibrated by CCT toolbox after simulating daily climatic parameters of daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature in the Karganrood basin in Gilan province, Iran. The meteorological data of Bandar Anzali synoptic station during 1975-2018 was used as the observation period. Daily parameters of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of Karganrood watershed were simulated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the next three periods of 2050-2025, 2051-2075 and 2100-2076, respectively, and compared with the observation period. NS, R2 and RMSE evaluation indices were used to evaluate the climate models HadGEM2-ES, MIROC and NoerESM1-M. The results of this study showed that the comparison of changes in future temperature data of the region using climatic models used with the observation period according to Mann-Kendall test is not random and under the influence of factors, in addition to correlation, a significant trend showed that the highest levels of significance were related to maximum temperature (Z = 4.04) and minimum temperature (Z = 4.6) at 95% confidence level in NoerESM1-M climate model and in the next period of 2051- 2075, respectively is under RCP8.5 scenario and its rate is increasing.

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