Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Productivity in Sistan and Baluchestan Province

Subject Areas :

Safiyeh Rigi ladez ¹ , Seyed Hadi Tayebnia ² , Peyman Mahmoudi ^{3 *} , Ebrahim Moradi ⁴

1 - Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 - Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3 - Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
4 - Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

Received: 2025-03-12 Accepted : 2025-06-04 Published : 2025-06-22

Keywords: Precipitation, temperature, trend, Sen’s slope estimator, Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function.,

Abstract :

The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in Sistan and Baluchestan province using panel data analysis. In this study, the productivity of agricultural products was considered as the dependent variable, and the total population of agricultural sector beneficiaries, the amount of fertilizer consumption, the annual discharge of groundwater resources, the average annual maximum temperature, the average annual minimum temperature, and the total annual precipitation were used as independent variables in the panel regression modeling. The results of the panel regression analysis showed that among the three climatic variables studied (average annual maximum temperature and average annual minimum temperature), the average annual minimum temperature was the only variable that had a positive effect on the agricultural productivity of this province at a 95% probability level, meaning that with a 1% increase in the average annual minimum temperature, the productivity of agricultural products in Sistan and Baluchestan province increased by about 0.52%. Apart from the average annual minimum temperature, the annual discharge of groundwater resources and the total population of agricultural sector beneficiaries were two variables whose negative effects on the productivity of agricultural products in this province were confirmed at a 99% probability level. A 1% increase in groundwater discharge led to a 0.13% decrease (due to salinization of groundwater), and a 1% decrease in the total population of agricultural sector beneficiaries led to a 0.34% decrease (due to reduced fertility of agricultural lands and their abandonment by farmers) in the productivity of agricultural products.

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