Prediction of the changes in some climate variables in Darehrood River of Aras Basin over next decades using of GCM Models

Subject Areas :

Ebrahim Fataei ¹ , Ali i Aziz ² , Seiied Taghi Seiied Safaviyan ³ , Ali Akbar Imani ⁴ , Akram Ojaghi ⁵ , Habib Farhadi ⁶

1 - دانشیارگروه علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اردبیل
2 - باشگاه نخبگان و پژوهشگران جوان دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اردبیل
3 - باشگاه نخبگان و پژوهشگران جوان دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اردبیل
4 - استادیارگروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اردبیل
5 - آموزش و پرورش ناحیه یک اردبیل
6 - باشگاه نخبگان و پژوهشگران جوان دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اردبیل

Received: 2017-12-04 Accepted : 2017-12-04 Published : 2017-08-23

Keywords: Precipitation, temperature, LARSE-WG, climate change models, River watershed,

Abstract :

Climate change is one of the natural features of atmospheric circulation anomalies and fluctuations in the meteorological parameters such as rainfall and temperature can be achieved. These anomalies in most of the world led to impair in natural ecosystems. Studies show that emissions of greenhouse gases in recent decades have increased considerably. These gases increase in the atmosphere, causing changes in Earth's climate parameters.  With widely varying meteorological simulation models of generators weather in recent decades, it is essential that these changes in a series of simulated apply. In this study, using statistical downscaling techniques, GCM models under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) for the period 2039-2011 using statistical models LARSE-WG daily data of temperature, precipitation and radiation small scale, and the results were evaluated on synoptic stations. The results show that changes in climate parameters will be created during the study period. So that the average temperature between the stations under study between 31.0 to 69.3 ° C will increase and rainfall will increase to 2.8 to 21.5 percent