Estimating the effect of economic sanctions in the framework of macroeconomic variables on Iran's economic growth
Subject Areas : Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
Hosein Jahangiri
1
,
Morteza Ezzati
2
,
Mohammadreza Farzin
3
,
Karim Emami
4
,
Abbas Memarnezhad
5
1 - Phd Candidate in Economics at Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran h.jahangiri76@yahoo.com
2 - Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran, (Crossponding Authur), mezzati@modares.ac.irدانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, Allameh Tabatabaee University, Tehran, Iran, b_farzin@yahoo.com
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran, karim_emami@yahoo.com
5 - Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran, memarnejad@srbiau.ac.ir
Keywords: Economic growth, Inflation, Currency, Unemployment, Sanction JEL Classification: E24, O24, E31, O16,
Abstract :
Opinions have been presented about the effect of variables that can have a negative effect on the economy, such as sanctions, unemployment, and inflation, but despite the fact that one of the needs of economic policymaking is to identify the effect of these factors at the same time, there has not been a joint study on them in Iran. . This research tries to estimate the effect of variables that can have a negative effect on the economy at the same time in a model with the vector autoregression method. In this research, the data of Iran's economy for the years 1358 to 1400 have been used. The analysis was done with the vector autoregression (VAR) econometric method and with Eviuse software. The main findings of this study are that the economic sanctions of the United Nations have had a negative effect on Iran's economic growth. In addition, the increase in government spending, unemployment rate and inflation have a negative effect on long-term economic growth, and the increase in investment and foreign exchange rates (in riyals) have a positive effect on long-term economic growth. And they are destabilizing for the economy