Asymmetric oil price shocks, tax revenues, resource curses, stock markets and trading cycles in oil-exporting economies
Subject Areas : Financial Economics
Hamidreza Modiri
1
(
Ph.D. student, Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran,
)
Marjan Damankeshide
2
(
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran,
)
Keywords: G10, Q43, business cycles, Stock market, H20, C20, Tax revenues, Keywords: Oil price fluctuations, panel Var model JEL Classification: M21,
Abstract :
Abstract The present study uses the PVAR model to investigate the impact of asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market and business cycles in oil exporting economies during the period 2000-2019. According to the estimation results; the response of the output gap to the shock of oil prices and exchange rates is a downward trend for up to 3 periods, after which it rises and in the long run this shock is gradually adjusted, but the problem that exists and the response of the output gap to liquidity also show this. is. Revenues from oil sales and foreign exchange earnings are not well managed in oil-rich countries, and the amount of liquidity injected into the market is spent on imports, which are generally done to combat inflation. In this case, many production sectors will be seriously damaged and will be taken out of the production cycle, and therefore part of the investments made in the economy will be unused and the amount of production will decrease, and on the other hand, when foreign exchange earnings decrease, the amount of imports. It has been reduced that part of the decrease in imports will be directed to capital goods and production machinery, leading to a decrease in investment and an increase in the production gap. Sectors that were taken out of production as a result of massive imports of consumer goods during the period of increasing oil revenues will not be revived in this period, which requires more attention of the country's officials to macroeconomic indicators.
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