The impact of macro-banking, financial, economic indicators and economic crises on Iran's business cycles
Subject Areas : Financial EconomicsSeyedeh Fatemeh Bagheri 1 , رافیک نظریان 2 *
1 - PhD student in Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University of Tehran
2 - استادیار دانشگاه آزاد واحد تهران مرکزی.تهران.ایران
Keywords: indicators, macro banking, financial, economic,
Abstract :
Advanced economies always face a period of prosperity and prosperity followed by stagnation and contraction. Business periods are regular and regular fluctuations in the macroeconomic activities of countries, which are mostly organized by commercial enterprises. In this article, an attempt was made to examine and experimentally test the impact of macro-banking, financial, economic indicators and economic crises on Iran's business cycles. The analysis method used in this article is self-explanatory vector regression model VAR; Also, the macroeconomic data of Iran has been extracted and compiled from the World Bank (WDI) database and the balance sheet information of the Central Bank in the period from 1980 to 2020. And for the analysis of econometric statistics, it was done through 12Eviews software. In this research, the beginning of stationarity of the variables was investigated using the Dickey-Fuller test. Based on the Schwartz Bayesian criterion (SBC), the best interval of three was determined. Johansen's test showed that based on effect statistics and maximum statistics; There are two long-term relationships at the 0.95 level between research variables. The results of the analysis show that macro-banking, financial, economic indicators and economic crises have different effects on Iran's business cycles. As the results of variance analysis showed, capital adequacy rate and exchange rate explain the most changes in business cycles.